Hotspotting

Disregard Interest Rate Speculation


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Anyone who tunes into mainstream media in this country will be aware that there is endless speculation about what’s going to happen with interest rates.

This is happening for three reasons.

One, journalists and commentators apparently believe we’re all breathlessly interested in what might happen with interest rates some time in the future. I think they’re wrong.

Two, journalists and commentators generally lack imagination and are collectively incapable of coming up with original and useful story lines.

And three, they all apparently think that Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe is a shameless and habitual liar.

The Reserve Bank governor has declared publicly, repeatedly, almost weekly, that the RBA has no intention of lifting the official interest rate any time soon.

Philip Lowe has stated many times that he expects the next interest rate to be in 2024.

So, no interest rate next year and no interest rate rise in 2023.

But media keeps telling us that interest rates will rise in 2022. That’s their first mistake.

Their second mistake is that they apparently believe that an interest rate rise will bring the property market crashing.

A rate rise will cause massive mortgage stress, apparently, and prices will fall.

I’m happy to go on the public record as saying that they’re wrong and that none of this is going to happen.

And here’s why.

Firstly, history shows us that an interest rate rise does not halt a strong property boom.

Indeed, two or three interest rate rises don’t make a dent in a booming housing market.

In the recent past, it has taken 5, 6 or 7 interest rate rises to bring a raging property market under control.

It’s worth noting that the last time we had genuine nationwide property booms in Australia, in the late 1980s and in the early years of this century, they occurred during times of very high and rising interest rates.

Secondly, the notion that interest rate rise will collapse the property market is based on the premise that the current boom has been caused, wholly and solely, by record low interest rates.

Economists are telling us this every day, demonstrating yet again how little they understand about the housing market.

My list of reasons for the national property boom has 16 dot points, with the level of interest rates just one of them.

Low interest rates didn’t cause the boom  - and rising interest rates, if and when they occur, won’t stop it.

Thirdly, media speculation about mortgage stress caused by future rises in interest rates overlooks the buffers that are in the system.

Most households are well ahead on their mortgage payments – years ahead, in many cases.

And borrowers are not assesses on current interest rates, they’re assessed on current rates plus 3%.

So anyone taking out a home loan with a 2% interest rate, will be assessed by the bank on their ability to repay the loan if the interest rate is 5%.

So rates could double and most borrowers would still be comfortable.

In summary, if you’re thinking of buying real estate and you’re worried about all the media speculation about interest rates, forget about it.

Ignore it. Tune out all this media white noise and just get on with it.

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HotspottingBy Terry Ryder & Tim Graham


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