The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Don’t Expect a Normal Reaction to an Abnormal Situation – Video Blog


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On Friday we finally got the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for July
The consensus is that this reports indicates that an interest rate hike is inevitable
This is the rate hike that everybody has been expecting and this report see
The report is weak, relative to previous months, but slightly ahead of the consensus
It seems like we are going in the wrong direction
Labor Force Participation Rate is stagnant at the lowest in decades
Q2 GDP was much lower than expected
the Atlanta GDP Now Forecast for Q3 at 1% - a third of the official forecast
If the Fed was not willing to raise rates last year, when the economy grew at 5%, why would they raise rates now?
The Fed may have backed themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates
If so, Yellen has already prepared the market for a tiny raise
They recognize that the market is fragile
It would be a more credible move for the Fed to not raise rates at all
The market's reaction to the jobs data and the "certainty" that rates are going up
The dollar sold off somewhat
Gold rose slightly
Higher interest rages are expected to be bullish for the dollar - Why didn't the dollar rise?
The old adage, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact"
If the Fed raises rates in September, it will be the most highly anticipated rate hike ever
If the market buys on the anticipation of a rate hike, the actual rate hike will be the sell signal
The market is telling us it has gained all that it is going to gain from any future rate hike
The Fed will deliver much less in the way of rate hike than the market expects
The reaction in the stock market was more interesting - The market was down again
The longest losing streak in the Dow in about 4 years
The fact that the U.S stock market is still falling indicates whereas the currency markets may have factored in a rate hike, the equity markets have not
I have been hearing the refrain,"There is no reason to fear a rate hike!"
This is a very naive to look at the market because there is no historical precedent for interest rates to stay low for so long
These are not "normal" times
More importantly, the market only expects a rate hike if the economy get better
But now the data shows that the economy is continuing to slow down
The crowd that believes a rate hike will not harm the economy should reassess their thinking
Corporate earnings, already under pressure will be further weakened by an interest rate hike
The consumer is barely surviving with rates at zero
2015 is probably going to be the weakest year of the entire so-called recovery
If the Fed really begins to raise interest rates, what is going to happen in 2016?
We will be in a bear market, the real estate market will drop and a recession will follow
The Fed's only medicine at that point will be QE
The truth is, the economy did not need the first round of QE and it nees QE4 even less
This is going to be the mother of all money drops and all the people who have been saying,"The Fed was right!" are taking a premature victory lap
Hopefully it will shock the Keynesians into abandoning central banking and central planning
And finally embracing a real market recovery based on free market principles
Those of us who have seen the writing on the wall will be rewarded in the investment front
For having the fortitude to maintain our positions and not throw in a winning hand
...more
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The Peter Schiff Show PodcastBy Peter Schiff

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