DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel Aug. 14 review improving stock-market breadth (0: 43) underneath a flat S&P 500. Higher risk premia priced into the long end of the Treasury curve (4:06) amid concerning acceleration of the U.S. deficit (6:47) and benign news on the inflation front (9:52). They also observe YTD returns making the case for diversification benefit of commodities (8:30). In the absence of fist-tier economic data for Aug. 17-21, Jeff and Ryan expect a week of August doldrums, barring an outbreak from never-absent headline risk.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey markets Aug. 7, noting an earnings-driven rally in equities (0:44) apart from energy, real estate and consumer staples. Positive returns posted across investment and below-investment grade fixed income (3:31) on easing rate worries. Currency markets (6:41) witnessed coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to stave off yen weakness. The action was aided by a weak dollar. On the macro front (9:21), softer-than-expected July payrolls led the week’s news. Ryan also took note of a flagging labor participation rate. Looking ahead to Aug. 10-14, Eric and Ryan will be focused on the July CPI and PPI prints, particularly Core CPI, with any print above the lower end of expectations likely to add pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise official short-term interest rates.

Beneath a slight gain for July 27-31 in broad indexes (00:37), stock market leadership continues to churn, note DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel. In fixed income (6:58), a bearish steepener took hold as markets perceived Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh striking a dovish stance. Fed funds futures adjusted to price in a two-thirds probability of a fed fund rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Warsh’s July 27 news conference (15:48) became the main event for the week’s market news. “He was channeling his inner Alan Greenspan, rest in peace, because he was saying a whole lot, but you couldn’t comprehend any narrative there other than he was tap-dancing around the reporters’ questions,” Eric Dhall comments. Notwithstanding the fancy footwork, Warsh let slip enough, including his discounting of core PCE as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Ryan Kimmel says, for the markets to detect a dovish posture.

For the week ended July 24, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough see a lot of red on the ticker tape (00:20), with the S&P 500 down on the week amid the AI skepticism that the market is kind of dishing out right now. It was also a red week for fixed income (3:20) as the U.S. interest rate curve sold off, but commodities (4:48) benefited from a potential second energy shock.

While it was a light week in Macro Land, Eric and Mark discuss the 186,000 jobless claims (8:17), the lowest print since 1969, and positive-territory manufacturing and service PMI numbers (10:29), which could have gotten a boost from the World Cup and celebration of the U.S. semiquincentennial. Next week (12:35) will bring lots of macro news, including home prices, a PCE print and a Q2 GDP estimate, but the big event will be the FOMC meeting, the second under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

For the week ended July 17, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel delve into rotating stock leadership amid a route in chipmakers (0:45), a clip-the-coupon bond world (4:47) and stronger commodities (5:55) as war drums spiked energy prices. Notwithstanding losses in erstwhile tech leadership, Ryan Kimmel sees positive signals for the U.S. economy in the form of broadening gains in equities, stellar bank earnings and robust corporate lending. Copper, an economic bellwether, while weak on the week, still is holding up for the month.

Topping the week’s macro news (10:23) was outright month-over-month deflation in the June headline CPI and even 2 basis points of deflation in Core CPI. “Generally speaking, it was a positive for the Fed and abated inflation fears from the prior months,” Ryan notes. “Heading into this print, the market was expecting almost a 50% probability of a July 29 rate hike. Following the report, we saw that number drop to 10%.”

Fed funds futures are still pricing in a single 25-basis point rate hike by year end. “In my opinion, that’s hedging,” Eric Dhall opines. “It’s tough to see the Fed hiking based on the last CPI, but you just don’t know. If WTI prices were driven again to the $100 level, hawks could be emboldened, but Chairman Warsh might throw cold water on that. I don’t think he thinks raising rates in an energy-shock inflation cycle makes sense.”

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the second quarter with stocks (1:44) led by a 43%+ gain in tech, high-grade bonds (6:07) grinding out the carry despite selling in the belly of the yield curve and commodities (9:53) giving back part of their still-healthy YTD gains. The U.S. dollar (12:28), Eric notes, was very resilient on the Federal Reserve’s commitment to defeat inflation.

In a tour of the last two weeks’ macro news (13:25), Mark finds a mostly stable labor market based on his readings of the June U-3 unemployment report, the latest JOLTS report and the update to weekly jobless claims data. Looking to the week ahead, the star prints of course will be the June CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) reports. Mark also will be eyeballing the first corporate earnings results for the quarter.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the market week ended June 26. Trading was marked by new leadership from neglected stock sectors (00:22), significant Treasury curve flattening (5:02) on a more hawkish than expected Kevin Warsh and weak commodities (6:41) as the dollar joined the long bond in cheering the new presumed hawk at the Fed.

Appraising the previous week’s FOMC meeting (9:21) and Warsh’s first news conference as Fed chair, Jeff observes the futures market upped its fed funds expectations to 1½ rate hikes in the remainder of 2026. “With less emphasis on forward guidance,” Ryan notes, “I think that will put a little more volatility into the front end. Markets will be a lot more dependent on incoming economic data. But ultimately, that will reduce the jump risk.” In the past, he explains, Fed officials could “get cornered into one position and then eventually have to change course,” producing “gappy markets.” In the absence of past guidance, he says, FOMC members won’t be tied to past public positions.

DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel run down the June 8-12 market week, which marked the arrival of the historic SpaceX IPO – an impressive debut for a company with no profits, as Mr. Dhall notes. Aside from the SpaceX splash, the broader equities market was up a little with quite a bit of dispersion in performance. Fixed income (3:37) was positive across the board, with a rally in rates catalyzed by talk of a potential ceasefire. Commodities (5:22) were down for the week, led by energy, but the spike for Dr. Copper could be a positive sign.

On the macro front (9:45), the big story was some hot CPI and PPI inflation prints. While the headline numbers were pretty stark, Mr. Kimmel takes a look underneath the hood to provide a more detailed prognosis. He notes that the CPI and PPI numbers are pointing to a hot PCE print later in the month. Next week (18:57) will be all about the inaugural FOMC meeting for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Messrs. Dhall and Kimmel look forward to his debut, cautioning that the arrival of a new chair often leads to some market volatility. Be sure to check out DoubleLine’s Fed Day coverage, including CEO Jeffrey Gundlach joining CNBC’s “Closing Bell” to share his thoughts on the new chair and his first post-FOMC meeting press conference.

Minutes will be off next Friday for the Juneteenth holiday but will return June 26. Happy holiday!

DoubleLine’s Jeff Mayberry and Mark Kimbrough survey a June 1-5 market week ending with a selloff in stocks (1:28) led lower by the high-flying tech, consumer discretionary and communications services sectors; higher, flattening bond yields (4:14); and weaker commodities (6:18) with the exception of energy. The risk retreat came on Friday’s strong payrolls report for May, which topped the week’s macro news (7:52) that also included a resilient ISM manufacturing report and an April JOLTS report showing a persistently low-hire, low-fire labor market.

Payrolls strength disappointed the doves. Fed funds futures (15:30) now price a hike in the rate by the end of the year. Jeff Mayberry, however, opines that the overall macro picture so far is unlikely to show to new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh a case for tighter official short-term interest rates. The most-anticipated macro prints (18:40) for the week of June 8-12 will be the May CPI and PPI reports on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

On the last trading day of May, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a month that saw a few tech giants (0:41) drive the S&P 500 to new highs while bond yields eased (5:56) albeit to still elevated levels versus the start of the month. Commodities (10:53) declined, led by energy. These moves came amid a ping pong of headlines fueling both hopes for a détente in the Persian Gulf and fears over the precarity of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. “The U.S. is negotiating with some more moderate people in Iran, but the guys with the guns don’t necessarily agree with those moderates,” Eric Dhall notes. “It’s tough to believe that this situation is going to blow over until we start seeing ships transiting through Strait of Hormuz.”

On the macro front for the week (13:27), Ryan Kimmel notes that despite softer-than-expected readings on the PCE Deflator for April, inflation still “is not moving in the right direction and remains well above the Fed’s targets.” Looking inside the personal income report for April, he notes real wages and salary growth turned negative. For the week ahead, the biggest item will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll and unemployment reports for May.