DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall kick off the new year with a rundown of 2024’s and December’s performance while also recapping the holiday week of Dec. 30-Jan. 3, naming the winners and losers (or laggards) in stocks, fixed income (3:30) and commodities (7:04). Over in Macro Land (10:18), Jeff and Eric catch up on recent news, including prints for homes prices and jobless claims as well as cap goods and ISM manufacturing numbers that raise speculation that some businesses might be stocking up in preparation for possible Trump tariffs. Next week (14:49) will bring a heavy dose of macro, including JOLTS, ISM services, payroll, consumer credit and trade sales and inventory numbers.

In their last Minutes podcast for 2024, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review year-to-date and Dec. 16-20 returns for stocks (0:36), fixed income (3:16) and commodities (6:17) before taking up the week’s macro news (7:10). For the Topic of the Week (12:22), Jeff and Sam unpack the Dec. 18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference and the immediate impacts on financial markets and longer-term monetary expectations. 

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a Friday-the-Thirteenth week for stocks (:033) and bonds (1:56) with commodities managing to end the week ended Dec. 13, 2024, in positive territory despite a rally in the dollar. For the week’s macro news (5:48), Mark Kimbrough notes an improvement in small business sentiment on hopes of lower taxes, easing regulation and inflation relief. He also discusses in-line consumer price index and stronger-than-expected producer price index readings for November. For their Topic of the Week (16:00), Eric Dhall discusses DoubleLine’s inflation model, which forecasts inflation in the 2% zone in 2025, provided energy prices remain tame. Looking ahead (18:47) to the week of Dec. 16-20,  in addition to an expected rate cut and release of economic projections by Federal Open Market Committee (Wednesday), Eric and Mark will be on watch for S&P Global purchasing manager surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S. economy (Monday), retail sales (Tuesday), third GDP estimate for 3Q2024 (Thursday) and personal income, personal spending and PCE price index (Friday).

After reviewing stocks (0:48), bond (2:43) and commodities (4:26), plus bitcoin (5:17) topping $100,000, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau unpack the past two weeks’ macro news (6:10). ISM manufacturing, payroll and jobs data suggestive, Jeff says, suggest that “maybe the Fed is going to be able to do the soft landing.” Turning to federal funds rate probabilities (12:27), future contracts are pricing in 3½ cuts through the end of 2025, inferring Sam notes more restrained policy than suggested to date in Fed guidance. Looking ahead to the Dec. 9-13 market week, topping their watch list will be the November CPI report, due Wednesday – the last CPI print before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 18.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a positive run in the markets for the week of Nov. 18-22. The S&P Index (00:33) inched up, supporting likely healthy returns for the month and year; fixed income (2:09) was also positive, with all components of the Agg rising; and the broad commodities market (3:54) was up, with gold marking a strong week. A light week in Macro Land (5:04) included a mixed picture for initial and continuing jobless claims, a “warning” signal framing for the Conference Board’s LEI and some post-election U.S. PMI numbers. It was also a light week for Fedspeak (11:26), with the odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December still basically a coin flip. Next week’s (12:03) data will include home prices, personal income and spending, and the October PCE print. This episode was recorded Nov. 22, 2024, before market close.

Minutes is taking next week off but will return with weekly coverage Dec. 6, including a recap of November monthly market performance. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the Nov. 11-15 week for stocks (0:57), with the Trump-buoyed energy and financial sectors alone of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to post gains; fixed income (2:40) mostly lower on amid rising rates; and commodities lower (4:20), with energy prices perhaps reflecting the “drill, baby, drill” mindset of the president-elect. For the week’s macro news (6:05), Mark Kimbrough dives into an in-line CPI report for the month of October, a hotter-than-expected PPI report and, in his opinion, some “quite entertaining” retail sales revisions. Jeff Mayberry notes that remarks by Jerome Powell (18:55) showing the Fed chairman in no hurry to cut rates clearly weighed on the federal funds futures market. For their Topic of the Week (20:55), Jeff and Mark answer a listener’s question about whether the steep climb in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields might signal that deficit- and debt-addicted Washington is heading for its own Liz Truss-type reckoning. In 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Truss proposed an unfunded budget. That sent gilt yields soaring and cut short Truss’s tenure at 10 Down Street. Looking to the week ahead (24:51), Jeff and Mark will be on the lookout for jobless claims on Thursday and the S&P Global purchasing managers surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S. economy.

In their review of the Nov. 4-8 market week, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover election-turbocharged stocks (0:48), volatile bonds (4:01) and modest gains in commodities (6:11). After a review of the week’s macro news (8:08), including a resilient services sector, Jeff and Sam dive into Thursday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting (10:14) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference. Looking ahead to the Nov. 11-15 week (20:11), they will be on watch for the October prints of the Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday) as well as jobless claims (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Oct. 28-Nov. 1 week of losses in stocks (1:45), led lower by tech and real estate; higher interest rates (4:03); and lower commodity prices (5:46), with energy getting pummeled. Their review of the week’s macro news (7:18) includes still strong housing prices, a strong GDP report for the third quarter and weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls. Looking to the week ahead (25:34), after the presidential and congressional elections, Thursday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s news conference will be topping Sam and Mark’s items to watch.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover the Oct. 21-25 week in stocks (0:39), fixed income (1:57) and commodities (3:36), then turn to the week’s light macro calendar (4:31), which included a mostly “stable” and “positive” Beige Book release by the Federal Reserve. The week of Oct. 28-Nov. 1 will hold more potentially market-moving news (10:42), including third quarter GDP (Wednesday); employment cost index, personal spending and income, and the PCE (Thursday); and ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review for the week of Oct. 14-18 the stock (0:52) and bond (2:08) markets whose somewhat-muted volatility, according to Jeff, suggests investors are waiting for more labor market data and especially the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Commodities (4:01) ended in the red, led by a sharp decline in crude on reports Jerusalem will spare Iranian oil facilities in any reprisals over Tehran’s Oct. 1 missile attack against Israel. In a relatively quiet week on the macro front (5:54), retail sales came in stronger than expected. Looking ahead to the Oct. 21-25 week (11:02), Jeff and Sam will be on watch for jobless claims and purchasing manager index reports (Thursday) and durable goods orders (Friday).