Driving with Dunne

In Part I of this conversation, Reilly Brennan described how the days of late October, 2022 will go down in history as some of the most important in the history of autonomous vehicles. In the space of just a few days, one company (Argo AI) went out of business, Tesla was taken to court for its Autopilot system and Reilly Brennan experienced a transcendent "before and after" moment when taking the Cruise robotaxi on a flawless 40 minute trip through the street of San Francisco. In this week's Part 2 of the conversation we look at the next giant hurdle for autonomous vehicles: Profitability. Cruise, Waymo, Baisu and other AV companies are still plowing through tens of billions of dollars in development costs. When will these companies be able to scale up their robotaxi fleets in multiple cities and become commercially viable? Put another way, now that Cruise has established proof of concept on the technology front, how long before we see proof of profit?

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Scour the planet and you are unlikely to find anyone who knows the business of autonomous vehicles (AVs & ADAS) better than Reilly Brennan, Co-Founder, Trucks Venture Capital. Over the past ten years, Brennan has taken rides in more than 100 autonomous vehicles. He and his partners at Trucks Venture Capital have also invested in dozens of startups in the AV ecosystem, including leading innovators like Gatik, May Mobility, AEye and NuTonomy. In this week's Driving With Dunne conversation, Brennan reveals why his recent 40 minute ride in a Cruise robotaxi through the streets of San Francisco was a mind-altering experience. What acts of technological magichad Cruise managed to perform? Where had Cruise broken through? Brennan also lays out in vivid terms the crucial distinction every driver should make between autonomous cars and vehicles that are enhanced through advanced driver assistance systems.

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Almost half of all humans now live in cities. By 2300 that number will climb to 75%. With so much population density, how will people get around? Horace Dediu and Roman Meliska have some powerful ideas. The future of transportation in cities is smaller, lighter, quicker and smarter. There is a shift underway to new modes of transportation that they call Micromobility. It is not the end of the car. But perhaps the end of an era in which cities are built to accommodate cars exclusively. What are these alternative forms of transportation? How much do they save us in terms of money, time and the environment? And which cities are the pioneers of the Micomobility revolution?

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StoreDot is an Israeli-based technology startup with deep expertise in charging batteries. The company is focused on extreme fast charging for electric cars. How extreme? StoreDot aims to deliver 100 miles of charge to your car battery in only five minutes. Among his financial backers: Samsung, Daimler, British Petroleum and VinFast. Doron and his team will demonstrate the "100 in 5" charge breakthrough in November 2022 at the high profile Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal. In today's conversation, we look at how StoreDot will save us thousands of hours of charging time.

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Reuters has just published a blockbuster forecast: Global automakers plan to invest $1.2 trillion in electric vehicles, batteries and supply chains between now and 2030. That is a massive, unprecedented number in the 130-year history of the auto industry. Just how big is 1.2 trillion? It is the equivalent to the GDP of Spain. It is also the same as Apple's market cap. Which companies are investing the most? Where are their investments concentrated? Is it in new vehicles, batteries, mining or something else? Author of this important report, Paul Lienert, tells us that the 2022 projection of $1.2 trillion in new investments is twice the 2021 number. What has caused the sudden spike in EV investing? And who will be winners and losers in 2030?

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Li-Cycle is a lithium-ion battery recycling company co-founded in 2016 by Tim Johnston and Ajay Kochhar, engineers with deep experience in minerals and mining. By 2025, there will be 900,000 tons of end of life batteries that need processing in North America and Europe. Li-Cycle is ramping up capacity to meet that future demand with operations in Arizona, Alabama, New York and Ohio.There are also new headquarters opening in Switzerland and Singapore. In this episode, Austrlaian-native Tim Johnston walks us through what happens to batteries after their cells are depleted. Do they go to a giant battery junkyard? No, battery scrap material and end-of-life batteries are shredded and then recycled into materials for new batteries. Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2021, Li-Cycle is now valued at close to one billion dollars.

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Metis Engineering founder Joe Holdwarth got his start working on nuclear submarines. Today, he spends his days and nights finding ways to prevent thermal runaway events in electric cars. EV battery fires are rare. According to experts, fires occur just 5 times for every billion miles traveled. For internal combustion engine-powered vehicles, the number is 55. But when there is a thermal runaway event, the results can be catastrophic. A fire in one battery cell spreads quickly to hundreds of others. And because fires are fueled by chemicals, they are difficult to bring under control. Often firefighters can only let fires burn themselves out. Automakers, battery manufacturers and expert engineering companies worldwide are working to develop early warning systems that shut down the battery before a fire can begin. One such company is Metis Engineering based in Bristol, England. What is venting? And how do the sensors developed by Metis act as life-saving early warning systems?

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What does living in a surveillance state look like? Well, now we know, thanks to a brilliant new book, Surveillance State, by Wall Street Journal veteran correspondents Josh Chin and Liza Lin. With more than 25 years on the ground in the People's Republic between them, Josh and Liza give us a firsthand look into how the Chinese government controls the behavior of 1.3 billion people around the clock. There is extensive and invasive policing using all forms of advanced technologies from millions of high resolution cameras to facial, voice and even gait recognition. There is nowhere to hide in the PRC. Will China attempt to export its social controls to other countries? Is your personal data already in Chinese hands? Josh and Liza, who are now persona non grata in China, deliver a candid and accurate picture of the what may become a global trend in social control.

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Henry Sanderson witnessed the explosion in demand for cars in China while living in Shanghai and Beijing from 2007 to 2014. He found the pace and magnitude of growth alarming. Then he returned to London where he began covering minerals and commodities for the Financial Times. Soon, he realized the world was stepping to a global super cycle around the minerals that feed into batteries. Demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel were on track to explode in line with the world's voracious appetite for electric cars. Sanderson takes us inside the complex and high-stakes world of mining, an area where companies are quietly making billions of dollars. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers in this race for supremacy in electrics, batteries, battery supply chains and minerals? Sanderson delivers an accurate and up-to-date picture of the players, the regulators and the costs of going green on the Driving With Dunne podcast.

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Lars Carlstrom is a Swedish-born entrepreneur with a gift for identifying the next big opportunity. In 2019, he co-founded Britshvolt and quickly persuaded industrialists and politicians in the UK to endorse the idea of a national champion British battery company. In 2021, Carlstrom founded Milan-based Italvolt. Earlier this year, Carlstrom announced the formation of Statevolt in Imperial Valley, California. Lars tells us he was motivated by the opportunity to introduce new technologies that will deliver cleaner air to cities. But more than anything else, Lars was inspired by the prospect of creating new jobs. His sites in the UK, Italy and America are all venues of former industrial glory which have gone dormant in recent decades. Mr Carltrom calls the move to electrification a once-in-a-hundred years phenomenon. He also says that we are in the very early stages of the transformation.

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