April 05, 2024

E110: Rubrik IPO, $5.7b valuation; OpenAI 600,000 business users; SpaceX Starship test #4 in early May; Starlink going live in Indonesia; Mexico approves Revolut Bank; Anduril wins US Army mandate; Klarna better vs credit cards! | Pre-IPO Stock Market Upd

13 minutes

Send us a text

00:10 | Rubrik IPO, $5.7b valuation
- $5.7b secondary market valuation
- 1,700 business customers
- $627m fiscal 2024 revenue
- 91% of revenue is subscriptions
- $354m in net loss
- First major unprofitable tech IPO of the year

01:29 | OpenAI 600,000 business users
- Custom model program is driving growth in business users
- 600,000 business users, +300% increase from Jan 2024 (just 3 months ago)
- OpenAI raised a round at $100b valuation in Jan 2024

02:37 | SpaceX Starship test #4 in early May
- 3rd test flight was a massive success
- Starship has 5x payload capacity of Falcon 9 rocket
- Starship has more revenue, less cost per launch vs Falcon 9
- $187b secondary market valuation, +3.9% vs Dec 2023 tender round

04:10 | Starlink going live in Indonesia
- Starlink already in Malaysia, Philippines
- 2b+ people have no access to internet globally
- Starlink has a satellite internet monolopy
- $50 to $110 per month satellite internet fee, based on location
- We estimate Starlink to be $1.0 trillion valuation business, at scale

05:26 | Mexico approves Revolut Bank
- Mexican banking regulator approves Revolut Bank to operate in Mexico
- 35 million customers across 38 countries
- most downloaded finance app in 9 countries, top 3 position in financial app rankings in 15 European countries
- $19.2 billion secondary market valuation, -42% from its last primary round in Jul 2021

05:26 | Anduril wins US Army mandate
- Develop a software framework essential for testing and deploying payloads for future robotic combat vehicles, or RCVs
- Contract value and duration not disclosed
- $11.6 billion valuation, +37% from its last primary round in Dec 2022

05:26 | Klarna buy now pay later better vs credit cards!
- 41% of US credit card users carry revolving debt, 23% pay late fees, 8.5% were delinquent (Q4 2023)
- 31% of Klarna’s US buy now pay later users paid early, 65% on time, 4% incurred late fees, default rate under 1%
- $9.3b secondary market valuation, +38% from its last primary round in Jul 2022

07:16 | Pre-IPO +0.88% for week, +12.59% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Ramp +32.0%, Scale AI +13.6%, Revolut +5.7%, Anthropic +4.1%, Chainalysis +3.5%
- Week losers: Discord -5.6%, Groq -2.64%, Chime -1.6%, Cohere -1.6%, Databricks -1.2% … we picked up research coverage of Groq this week
- Top valuations: ByteDance $285b, SpaceX $187b, OpenAI $96b, Stripe $94b, Databricks $41b … We got our hands on some new data … the actual share price of the last primary rounds. Where we have that data it is now included and it has materially impacted several companies’ implied secondary market valuations. Make sure to look at the full report to understand the company by company impact.

08:01 | +2.23% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index to see all 20 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Indexes
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Stripe +53%, Rippling +49%, Revolut +28%
- 2024 Vintage Index top detractors since inception: Just Epic Games but they’re only down 1% … so really no detractors in the 2024 Vintage Index
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week;
…winners = Tanium +33.8%, Revolut +5.7%, Anthropic +4.1% and
…losers = Discord -5.6%, Chime -1.6%, Databricks -1.2%
- Tanium is in four Vintage Indexes; 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Tanium only has a 1% to 2% current weight in any of those four indexes so this 34% increase is not a major impact to the Indexes’ performance.
- Revolut is in the 2022, 2023, and 2024 index. Anthropic is in just the 2024 index
- Discord is in the 2022 and 2023 index