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EBS 13: Time in vs Timing | Why Timing Beats Patience
Episode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs.
Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate between 80 and 95 percent depending on the period.
It works because growth tends to arrive in bursts and long holds converge toward the average.
The takeaway is to use data to time entry and exit rather than wait. Only default to long-term holds when you cannot forecast growth.
Episode Highlights
00:00 - Introduction
00:49 - Timing vs Time-in the market
02:27 - Holding long term
03:38 - Trading property
06:47 - Trading property, works!
08:40 - Simulator
10:27 - Buying and selling rules
14:56 - Reallocating equity
16:12 - Caveats
18:59 - Simulation run 1
28:31 - Simulation run 2
29:47 - 35 year performance
44:31 - 25 year performance
45:19 - 20 year performance
46:27 - 15 year performance
46:53 - Conclusion
Got questions or feedback?
Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites
👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More
https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Market
https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Rate
https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMER
Please be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.
• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.
• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.
View all episodes
By suburbdataEpisode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs.
Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate between 80 and 95 percent depending on the period.
It works because growth tends to arrive in bursts and long holds converge toward the average.
The takeaway is to use data to time entry and exit rather than wait. Only default to long-term holds when you cannot forecast growth.
Episode Highlights
00:00 - Introduction
00:49 - Timing vs Time-in the market
02:27 - Holding long term
03:38 - Trading property
06:47 - Trading property, works!
08:40 - Simulator
10:27 - Buying and selling rules
14:56 - Reallocating equity
16:12 - Caveats
18:59 - Simulation run 1
28:31 - Simulation run 2
29:47 - 35 year performance
44:31 - 25 year performance
45:19 - 20 year performance
46:27 - 15 year performance
46:53 - Conclusion
Got questions or feedback?
Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites
👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More
https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Market
https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Rate
https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMER
Please be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.
• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.
• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.
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