Episode 14 examines the belief that infrastructure projects drive capital growth. Using long run ABS data, project level case studies and a review of more than 120 individual projects, we show that most infrastructure has little to no reliable link to stronger price growth.

In many cases, the relationship appears to run the other way, with rising property values helping fund new projects rather than projects driving the gains. We also assess the track record of infrastructure based hotspot reports and find the results are inconsistent and often no better than broad market selection.

The takeaway is simple. Infrastructure may improve an area, but it is overrated as a growth strategy and should never be treated as proof that prices will rise.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 - Introduction

02:28 - Construction activity vs 3 year capital growth

05:15 - 3 Year construction activity vs 3 year capital growth

07:44 - 6 Year construction activity vs 6 year capital growth

09:06 - 6 year capital growth vs 6 Year construction activity

10:00 - Why price growth leads to infra growth?

13:55 - Non-residential building activity vs 3 year house growth

15:00 - 6 year non-residential building activity vs 6 year house growth

15:50 - 2 year house price growth vs 2 year building activity

16:23 - ABS: Private sector capital expenditure

17:17 - 3 year capital expenditure vs 2 year house growth

18:38 - Specific infrastructure projects

24:49 - Suburb Data Example: Historical charts

28:38 - 120 Projects: 95% FAILED

31:04 - An infrastructure expert

46:02 - Expert vs DSR v1

50:10 - Expert vs DSR Plus v2

51:33 - Expert vs DSR 3 v3

53:12 - Experts recent research and reports

55:13 - Experts recents vs DSR 3

58:32 - Conclusion

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