On the eve of the national elections, this episode outlines the broad patterns that can be discerned from poll numbers, and considers possible coalitions if the ANC were to lose their ruling majority. In light of speculation about policy uncertainty and populism, we also look at trends in the 2024 budget.

So what? Expectations that we will have “a new national government” are unrealistic. Nationally, the ANC will still be the biggest party by a margin and will invite other parties to join a coalition if necessary. The major question is whether coalition governments may need to be formed on provincial level. Economic policies, meanwhile, are holding steady. The issue is not uncertainty but the pace of implementation. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.