The So What?

Two-and-a-half months after the election, the Government of National Unity is holding. In this episode, we look at what is keeping it together, the benefits of that unity, and what may threaten it in future.

This episode looks at the very important things that did NOT happen in this election season, as well as exploring the possibilities of the brand new coalition territory we’re entering into.

52 days before the election we look at the impact of the formation of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, and reflect on possible developments after the elections, which may prove more important than what happens before 29 May 2024.

For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

On the eve of the national elections, this episode outlines the broad patterns that can be discerned from poll numbers, and considers possible coalitions if the ANC were to lose their ruling majority. In light of speculation about policy uncertainty and populism, we also look at trends in the 2024 budget.

So what? Expectations that we will have “a new national government” are unrealistic. Nationally, the ANC will still be the biggest party by a margin and will invite other parties to join a coalition if necessary. The major question is whether coalition governments may need to be formed on provincial level. Economic policies, meanwhile, are holding steady. The issue is not uncertainty but the pace of implementation. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode unpacks the Integrated Resource Plan 2023, recently published for public comment in order to replace the previous version from 2019. It is a deeply disappointing document, visionless and without urgency.

So what? Eskom will not get us out of the our energy crisis. The utility’s energy availability factor keeps falling, sketching a relentless downward trend. Fortunately, regulatory reform since 2021 has opened the way for the private sector to step into the breach. This is happening. An opportunity for re-industrialisation in the sphere of renewable energy still exists. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

In this episode, JP reflects on his impressions after a short study visit to China. In just 45 years, they have lifted themselves out of poverty. It is an astonishing achievement. So what? The hallmark of the Chinese growth story is pragmatism and pursuing what works. They will determine their own destiny, regardless of the actions of outsiders. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode provides a bit of a twist on our annual overview of the fight against corruption. Research on countering corruption in America around the turn of the 20th century finds that a) it can be done, but b) it is not easy or linear, and depends to a large extent on building institutional capacity. Against that background, we look at (relatively) new institutions in South Africa, like the SIU Tribunal, the investigative Directorate and the Anti-Corruption Task Team. We also assess the on-going work of established arms of the NPA. So what? There is much to applaud in both new and existing institutions, but there are weak spots (like the SAPS) that urgently need more focus. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

Three months after our first episodes discussing coalitions, we look at three important developments: the IFP-DA agreement in KZN, the intervention of the ANC Veterans’ League, and a meeting on coalitions convened by Deputy President Paul Mashatile. We also discuss the multi-party pact and the possibility of minimum thresholds for participating in government. So what? To deal with chaos at local government level, a political agreement between major parties is crucial. It can happen now, irrespective of legislation. It would strengthen the democratic centre and bring together those who belong together. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

In this episode we look at the pressing need to integrate economics and foreign policy in a way that will advance the interests of the country. So what? South Africa’s stance on the war in Ukraine and our interactions with Russia and China have hurt us economically. On the other hand, we have legitimate foreign policy concerns which can and must be accommodated. Brazil and India have managed the situation much better. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.