We have been saying for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture following a harsh mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season that weighed on grains and oilseeds harvest.

The first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds point to the possibility of a better harvest. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 overall summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 17,2 million tonnes, up 11% from the previous season. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.

The expected yield improvements primarily back better harvest prospects. The overall area planting is 4,4 million hectares, roughly unchanged from the last season. Provided this is a first production estimate and possibly does not fully account for the gains of the recent rains, we could see further upside revision in the coming months. After all, there are nine more estimates to follow monthly.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website