Enrollment goals are often set backwards from budget needs, leaving institutions exposed when the numbers don’t hold. Many also undermine their own strategies by purging financial aid data for students who never enroll, erasing the signals needed to forecast yield and build sustainable plans.

In this episode of the Changing Higher Ed® podcast, Dr. Drumm McNaughton speaks with Dr. Emily Chase Coleman, co-founder and CEO of HAI Analytics, about how enrollment analytics and data modeling give leaders the tools to move past guesswork. Their conversation covers student recruitment, retention, budgeting, and how presidents and boards must use analytics as the foundation of strategic planning.

Topics Covered

• How incomplete financial aid data undermines enrollment forecasting
• The impact of data-driven modeling on student recruitment and retention
• The financial risks of setting enrollment targets disconnected from market demand
• Why diversifying online, part-time, and hybrid delivery is now critical
• How shifting student expectations around ROI affect enrollment decisions
• The role of analytics in building sustainable budgets and strategic plans

Real-World Examples Discussed

• Institutions wasting millions in financial aid discounts by awarding students who would have enrolled anyway
• Specialized programs like architecture leaving stranded costs when enrollment falls short
• Boards approving targets backwards from revenue needs, destabilizing budgets and strategic plans

Three Key Takeaways for Leadership

1. Boards must insist on complete, accurate data, including financial aid offers to non-matriculants, or enrollment models collapse.
2. Diversified delivery—online, hybrid, and part-time—is critical to reaching new student populations and sustaining tuition revenue.
3. Enrollment goals must be realistic, tied to market conditions, and integrated into institutional budgeting and strategic planning.

Bonus Takeaway from Dr. McNaughton

Boards can’t wait for a crisis. Use enrollment analytics to look three to five years ahead, and if the numbers don’t work, start structured conversations about alliances or mergers now—before circumstances force them.

Recommended For

Presidents, trustees, boards, and enrollment leaders who need to align student recruitment, retention, budgeting, and long-term planning with institutional strategy.

Read the transcript: https://changinghighered.com/student-recruitment-budgeting-planning-enrollment-analytics/

#HigherEducation #EnrollmentAnalytics #StrategicPlanning #HigherEducationPodcast