• APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.
• US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.
• Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.
• NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.
• White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB’s Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADEEQUITIES

• US stocks were firmer on Tuesday, and while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed, it managed to pare all weakness initially seen, driven by NVIDIA, amid The Information reported that Meta is considering using Google’s TPUs in its data centres in 2027. NVIDIA (-2.6%) still ended the day with losses, but the wider index managed to recover. Sectors overall were predominantly in the green, with Health and Consumer Discretionary sitting at the top of the pile. Utilities and Energy were the only sectors in the red. The latter was hit by weakness in the crude complex amid positive Ukraine/Russia peace deal developments, with Trump most recently posting on Truth Social that there are only a few remaining points of disagreement, and as such, he is sending Witkoff to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow, and Driscoll to meet with the Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the deluge of US data did little to move markets, as PPI and Retail Sales were dated (Sept), although Consumer Confidence (Nov) was dismal. On the Fed front, Miran was his usual dovish self, but the US yield curve steepened amid BBG reports that Hassett is seen as the frontrunner in Trump's Fed Chair search.
• SPX +0.91% at 6,766, NDX +0.58% at 25,018, DJI +1.43% at 47,112, RUT +2.14% at 2,466.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• China bought at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans for January shipments, according to traders cited by Reuters.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• White House said President Trump is not considering a straight two-year subsidy extension and will make recommendations for healthcare policy improvements soon, while Trump later commented that he doesn't want to extend subsidies regarding healthcare policy.
• US President Trump was reportedly weighing ousting FBI Director Kash Patel, although Trump later stated that Kash Patel is doing a great job.
• White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Hassett is seen as someone who would bring the president’s approach to interest rate cutting to the Fed, which Trump has long wanted to control, some of the sources said.
• Fox's Lawrence said, regarding the search for the next Fed Chair, that "There is no frontrunner: Senior US official confirmed a final list of candidates has not yet been sent to the White House. A final list will be sent to Trump after interviews have concluded". Lawrence added that "The Treasury Secretary says he has not yet finished the interviews for the possible next Federal Reserve Chairman".
• US October Budget (USD): -248bln (exp. -235.05bln, prev. -257bln in Oct 2024), budget outlays 689bln (prev. 584bln); receipts 404bln (prev. 327bln); net customs receipts 31.4bln (prev. 7.3bln)
• Fed Discount Rates Minutes stated that Board members discussed economic and financial developments and issues related to possible policy actions, while no sentiment was expressed by the Board at the meeting for changing the primary credit rate at this time, and the Board approved the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 4.25%.

APAC TRADEEQUITIES

• APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.
• ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in mining and materials, with most sectors in the green aside from utilities, tech and telecoms.
• Nikkei 225 rallied with SoftBank among the biggest gainers as it rebounded from the previous day's OpenAI-related slump, and with participants shrugging off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid a focus on earnings with mixed results from the likes of Alibaba and NIO.
• US equity futures marginally extended on the previous day's advances heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY remained subdued following the recent deluge of data, including softer-than-expected Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Core PPI figures, in combination with optimistic headlines on Ukraine-Russia, while it was also reported by Bloomberg that NEC Director Hassett, a close ally of Trump, is the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role, although Fox Business sources refuted the claim.
• EUR/USD held on to recent gains with a firm footing above the 1.1500 level after benefitting from the weaker dollar, while there were previous comments from ECB's Makhlouf, who noted concern about service and food inflation.
• GBP/USD was firmer ahead of today's Budget announcement with further leaks reported, including an increase to the minimum wage and no cuts on VAT applied to energy bills.
• USD/JPY saw two-way price action with initial upside reversed after a source report that BoJ messaging is preparing markets for possible interest rate hike as soon as December, with a tweak to communication, although one of the sources noted the decision on whether to hike in December or hold off until January remains a close call.
• Antipodeans strengthened with AUD supported following firmer-than-expected inflation data, while NZD outperformed after the RBNZ policy announcement in which the central bank cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0796 vs exp. 7.0825 (Prev. 7.0826)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures mildly pulled back after bull steepening on soft data and reports that NEC Director Hassett is the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role.
• Bund futures faded some of their recent gains ahead of several ECB speakers and today's Bund issuance.
• 10yr JGB futures trickled lower amid mild gains in yields after a somewhat hawkish BoJ source report, while the latest 40-year JGB auction results showed a relatively in line b/c but lower accepted prices.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were rangebound and took a breather after fluctuating yesterday amid the positive risk environment and Russia/Ukraine peace deal updates, while the latest private sector inventory data was mixed and did little to spur price action.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.9mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +0.8mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +0.5mln (exp. +0.7mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
• Spot gold remained underpinned amid a weaker dollar and recent softening of yields.
• Copper futures continued its gradual rebound from yesterday's trough with futures back above the USD 5.10/lb level.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was relatively flat after oscillating through the USD 87,500 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ is said to be preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as December with a tweak to communication, according to Reuters sources, although one of the sources said the decision on whether to hike in December or hold off until January remains a close call.
• RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and stated that future moves in the OCR will depend on the outlook for the medium-term. RBNZ said annual consumer inflation increased to 3% in the September quarter but added that with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to fall to around 2% by mid-2026, while it commented that risks to the inflation outlook are balanced and economic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking up. Furthermore, it projected the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in March 2026 (prev. 2.55%) and at 2.28% in December 2026 (prev. 2.62%). RBNZ Minutes revealed that the decision was made by a vote of 5-1 and that the committee discussed the options of holding the OCR at 2.50% or lowering it to 2.25% in which the case for a hold emphasised the considerable reduction in the OCR to date, while the case for a cut emphasised significant excess capacity in the economy.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the stimulus package isn't reckless spending, and added that a strengthening economy can help improve Japan's fiscal health. She said JGB issuance for this fiscal year will be below last year's size, including expected issuance for extra budget, and it is important to ensure fiscal sustainability. She noted they will strike to lower debt-to-GDP ratio with a close eye on interest rates, and the government will take appropriate steps by gauging whether FX rates reflect fundamentals. She said they will watch FX for any speculative moves, and will watch Yen and JGB yields closely.
• RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said he feels that risks are balanced and they are in a great position to mitigate risks, while he stated the central projection is based on the Cash Rate being on hold through 2026, as well as noted that economic indicators are picking up across all high-frequency measures and the current cash rate is supportive and stimulatory. Hawkesby also commented that they retain full optionality on the cash rate with every option on the table.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Services PPI (Oct) 2.70% vs. Exp. 2.70% (Prev. 3.00%)
• Australian CPI YY (Oct) 3.80% vs. Exp. 3.60%
• Australian Weighted Median CPI YY SA (Oct) 3.40% vs. Exp. 2.95%
• Australian Trimmed Mean CPI YY SA (Oct) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.0%
• Australian Construction Work Done (Q3) -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 3.0%)

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy. Trump said Europe will be largely involved in security guarantees and that the initial 28-point plan was just a map, as well as noted that Special Envoy Witkoff will be meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow next week. Trump also commented that the Russians are making concessions and there is no deadline for a deal.
• US President Trump posted that his team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he directed Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow in the hope of finalising the peace plan.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch the Ukraine plan to US President Trump, according to Bloomberg.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to move forward with the peace deal framework with US President Trump and Europe, while Zelensky said Europe should continue to support Ukraine as long as Russia shows no willingness to end the war, and he called on European leaders to work out a doable framework to deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky's Chief of Staff Yermak spoke to US Army Secretary Driscoll and expects him to visit Kyiv this week, while Yermak thanked Driscoll for his objectivity and concrete approach. Furthermore, he said Ukraine is willing to work quickly to finalise steps to end the bloodshed and that Geneva talks on a peace accord provided a good base, with President Zelensky fully ready to work further.
• Latest Ukraine peace draft 'significantly better for Kyiv' and allows Kyiv to keep 800k strong army, according to AFP citing a senior official.
• Russia is expected to reject the new 19-point cease-fire deal drafted by the US and Ukraine, suggesting the war will last at least through Christmas, sources told NY Post.

OTHER

• Taiwan's President Lai said his government will introduce a historic USD 40bln supplementary defence budget and that the package will not only fund significant new arms acquisitions from the US, but also vastly enhance Taiwan’s asymmetrical capabilities. Lai said Beijing has been trying to turn democratic Taiwan into China’s Taiwan and that China’s threats to the Indo-Pacific are intensifying, while he added that Beijing continues to increase military drills and grey-zone harassment near Taiwan. Lai also stated that China’s infiltration and influence campaigns in Taiwan are intensifying, and China is speeding up military preparations to take Taiwan by force. Furthermore, he said mechanisms will be set up to counter China’s transnational repression and to protect Taiwan’s citizens, as well as noted that “one country, two systems” is a red line for Taiwan and Taiwan will adopt a strategy of self-defence to counter China's threats.
• Taiwan's Defence Minister said China has changed its patterns and is squeezing Taiwan’s response time, while he commented that the special defence budget runs from 2026 to 2033 and will cover items from missiles to drones to counter fast-rising Chinese threats.
• US de facto ambassador to Taiwan welcomes President Lai’s announcement of a new special defence budget and said the US supports Taiwan’s rapid acquisition of critical asymmetric capabilities needed to strengthen deterrence, while he stated that today’s announcement is a major step toward maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait by strengthening deterrence.
• China's Taiwan Affairs Office said regarding Japan's missile deployment plan near Taiwan, that they have firm will, strong determination and a powerful ability to crush all foreign interference schemes.
• Cuba's Foreign Minister said US intervention in Venezuela would be a violation of international law and the UN Charter, while he added that the exaggerated and aggressive military presence of the US in the region constitutes a threat against Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK government approved a 4.1% increase in the main minimum wage rate to GBP 12.71 an hour from April 2026.