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Excess Returns episodes
- Investing in a Flows Driven World | Cem Karsan
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy.
We explore:- How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk- Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows- The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility- Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024- Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today- Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead- Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment themeCem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.SEE LATEST EPISODES
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 10 min - What Investors Can Learn from a Year-Long Trading Experiment | Brent DonnellyIn this episode, Matt sits down with Brent Donnelly, author of "50 Trades in 50 Weeks: One Year of Good Ideas, Dumb Mistakes, and Timeless Trading Lessons". Brent spent close to a year conducting a unique experiment where he created and executed one unique trade every week across a wide variety of markets and asset classes. We discuss what he learned from the experience.We also delve into the concept of edge in investing and the challenges of maintaining one in evolving markets, the importance of narrative, the challenges of transitioning from backtesting to live trading, the crucial role of adaptation in markets and a lot more.1 hr 3 min
- What Regular Investors Need to Know About Options Flows | Brent Kochuba
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices.
We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting.We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates.Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market.SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKEThttps://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess1 hr 4 min - The Case for a Roaring 2020s | Ed Yardeni
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.
We covered a wide range of topics, including:
Ed's outlook for inflation and the economyWhy he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock marketHis thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expectThe characteristics that make a good economic forecasterThe potential impact of AI on the economyHis views on the upcoming election and its market implicationsThe long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocksEd's approach to sector allocation and market breadthSEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 2 min - The Harsh Truth About Investing Edge with Adam Butler
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management.
We cover a lot of ground, including:The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimesThe concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversificationThe process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfoliosThe impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentalsPerspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growthAs always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 21 min - Value Investing in a Changing World with Aswath Damodaran
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics.
We cover:- How companies age and why they struggle to act their age- The importance of storytelling in valuation- Aswath's thoughts on factor investing and its limitations- The rise of passive investing and its impact on markets- Market concentration and the dominance of big tech companies- How Aswath approaches his own investing decisions- The potential impact of AI on investing and valuation- Why Aswath has never attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meetingAswath shares his unique perspectives on these topics, blending academic rigor with practical insights. He also offers his advice for the average investor, emphasizing the importance of focusing on preserving and growing wealth rather than chasing outsized returns.Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this wide-ranging conversation offers valuable food for thought on navigating today's complex markets.SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 10 min - Challenging "Stocks for the Long Run" with Jason Buck
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jason Buck of Mutiny Funds to examine the idea of stocks for the long run and some potential challenges to it.
We discuss:- Why the impressive historical returns of the US stock market may be an outlier- The importance of looking at real returns vs nominal returns- How to build a diversified portfolio to handle different economic scenarios- The concept of "fractal diversification" in portfolio construction- Rethinking sustainable withdrawal rates in retirement- The pros and cons of using leverage in a diversified portfolio- Unconventional investing beliefs that go against the mainstreamSEE LATEST EPISODEShttps://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 2 min - The Mechanics of Deleveragings - And Where the Current One Fits In | Andy Constan
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 3 min - Challenging Conventional Investing Beliefs with Meb Faber
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss his unconventional views on investing that often go against mainstream opinions. We explore a wide range of topics, including the Federal Reserve's performance, dividend investing strategies, international diversification for U.S. investors, trend following, and the relationship between interest rates and stock market valuations. Throughout our conversation, Meb challenges common investing beliefs and provided evidence-based perspectives on various aspects of the market. We all can benefit from challenging our own strongly held investing beliefs and we hope this episode will help you do that as it did for us.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau59 min - A Safety First Retirement | The 4% Rule and Managing Sequence of Returns Risk with Wade Pfau
In this episode of Excess Returns, our good friend Matt Ziegler interviews retirement planning expert Wade Pfau. They discuss key concepts in retirement income planning, including the 4% rule, variable withdrawal strategies, and Pfau's "safety first" approach. They discuss Wade's work on retirement income styles and the RISA (Retirement Income Style Awareness) framework he developed to help retirees and advisors determine appropriate strategies. They also explore topics like the benefits of delaying Social Security, the role of annuities in retirement planning, and managing sequence of returns risk. Wade also shares insights on tax-efficient withdrawals, evolving retirement challenges, and balancing frugality with enjoying life in the present.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.comFIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.comFOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneauLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau1 hr 3 min
About Excess Returns
From the publisher's feed
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with…
some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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