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🌾 Farm Bailout on Hold
A “clever and generous” farm aid package is ready to launch once the government shutdown ends. Kevin Hassett says it was supposed to drop by Oct. 7 but got delayed. Reports point to at least $10 billion — likely funded by tariff revenue — to offset weak exports and global oversupply. Polymarket bettors see a 33% chance the shutdown lasts past Nov. 16.

💸 U.S. Support for Argentina
The Treasury plans another $20 billion to stabilize Argentina’s economy — on top of last week’s swap line. Scott Bessent says funding is policy-linked, not political. Some reports hint the U.S. has already bought Argentine pesos, implying exposure to currency risk.

🌱 NOPA September Crush
The September soybean crush hit 197.86 million bushels — the fourth-highest on record and 11.6% above last year. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.24 billion pounds, the lowest since Dec 2024 and below trade expectations. 

🇨🇳 Trade War Confusion
Trump confirmed the U.S. is “in a trade war with China,” even as Bessent floated extending the current truce if China halts rare-earth export controls. Talks with South Korea, Canada & India continue, and Trump is still set to meet Xi in South Korea later this month.

🚢 Mississippi River Crisis
Low water levels for the fourth straight year are tightening grain transport south of St. Louis. Rates are rising and efficiency is dropping just as soybean exports face trade-war headwinds. 

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