Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Farmers Hate Relying on China (They're Not Buying US Corn)


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🚢📦 West Coast Port Cargo Surge & Market Updates | US Corn Export Sales, Brazil Weather, and Drought Report

Welcome back, everyone! 👋 In today’s video, we’ve got some major updates on the flood of imports into West Coast ports ahead of looming tariffs, a rise in US corn export sales, and the latest weather models for Brazil’s soybean crop. We’ll also dive into the worsening drought conditions across the Corn Belt and the stock market hitting new highs! Let’s get into it! 🚀👇

🚢 West Coast Ports See Massive Spike in Imports
Cargo is pouring into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach as businesses try to dodge upcoming tariff hikes. These ports handle about a third of all US container imports, and this summer’s spike nearly surpassed the all-time high set in May 2021. What’s behind the surge?

📦 Businesses are rushing to bring in goods before the US hikes tariffs on Chinese products next Friday.
A potential dockworker strike at East and Gulf coast ports is pushing even more imports through the West Coast.

🌽📈 US Corn & Soybean Export Sales Rise
US new crop corn export sales soared last week, driven by strong demand:
Corn sales: 847,400mt (33 million bushels), up 27% from the prior week! Mexico was the top buyer. 🚜
Soybean sales: A whopping 1.7mmt (64 million bushels), with China leading the pack. This beat expectations by 19%! 🌱
Wheat sales, however, fell to their lowest in two months at 246,300mt (9 million bushels), down 48%.

🌧️ Brazil Soybean Forecast: Rain on the Horizon?
Soybean farmers in Brazil may finally get some relief! 🌱 Mato Grosso and other key soybean areas have been battling extremely dry conditions, but rain could be on the way in October.

There’s some disagreement between weather models: The Euro model expects rain toward the end of the next 10 days, while the GFS model is less optimistic.
However, both models predict more consistent rainfall during the first two weeks of October—a positive sign for Brazil’s soybean crop! 🌧️

💧 Drought Worsens in US Corn Belt
The USDA’s weekly drought monitor is out, and the news isn’t great. 😬 Dry, hot weather has worsened drought conditions across the Corn Belt:

77% of the region is now abnormally dry, with Ohio being hit hardest—59% of the state is in severe drought or worse.
While the dry weather is good for corn and soybean maturation, it’s hurting pastures and newly planted crops like winter wheat. 🌾

🔢 US Drought Conditions:

Corn: 26% affected
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 58%
Spring Wheat: 19%
Cattle: 35%

📊 Stock Market Surges to Record Highs
The stock market is on fire! 🔥 One day after the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate cut, the S&P 500 hit its 39th record high this year, jumping 1.7%! Here’s the breakdown:
Dow Jones also climbed, closing above the 42,000 level for the first time. 📈
The Fed’s bold move has renewed optimism for a soft landing and avoiding a recession. Jobless claims are also down, reaching their lowest level since May. 💼

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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