Two episodes ago, I revealed that with the help of two volunteers on the island of Zanzibar I had been able to retrieve the first data showing how Lepas anatifera barnacles grow out on the open sea in the western Indian Ocean, where debris from MH370 was collected. In order to understand what this could tell us about the debris’ origin, I needed to measure the barnacles — more than 700 of them! — and perform a rudimentary statistical analysis. Today I present the results of that analysis. I think they go a long way towards resolving the myster of the missing plane.

As the facts have emerged in the case of Air India 171, which crashed while taking off from Ahmedabad, India on June 12, it’s become increasingly clear that in all probability it was a case of mass murder suicide on the part of the captain. Mass murder suicide by pilot is a rare phenomenon, but until now they have all followed a certain pattern. Air India does not fit that pattern. In today’s episode, I make the case that the plane’s captain figured out a way to kill himself that is faster, easier, and more difficult to thwart. I fear that other suicidally minded airline pilots might be inspired to copy him, putting the flying public at risk.

Helping me to understand the phenomenon of pilot murder-suicide is Dr Alpo Vuorio of the University of Helsinki, who co-authored a 2023 paper in the journal "Safety" entitled "Commercial Aircraft-Assisted Suicide Accident Investigations Re-Visited—Agreeing to Disagree?" You can find the paper here: https://www.mdpi.com/2313-576X/9/1/17

This week mark the 10th anniversary of the discovery of the first piece of physical evidence in the case of the missing Malaysian Airliner, MH370. When the badly damaged right flaperon washed ashore on La Réunion, a French island in the western Indian Ocean, on July 17, 2015, it immediately caused a worldwide sensation. Scientists realized that the barnacles found growing on the flaperon could provide important clues as to where it had drifted from — and that, presumably, would at last reveal the plane’s crash site. At a time when the seabed search had proven frustratingly empty, they hoped that this information could provide the key to finally solving the case. But scientists were missing an important piece of context: a robust understanding of how exactly Lepas anatifera barnacles grow when floating in the open ocean. For years, that understanding proved elusive. However, using data from the Atlantic Oceonographic & Meteorological Laboratory in Miami and the assistance of volunteers living by the ocean’s edge, I’ve finally been able to collect specimens of known age that put the growth of the flaperon barnacles in context and reveal when the object went into the water. It turns out that scientists’ initial expectations were way off the mark.

So far we’ve been focused on the physical and electronic evidence left behind by whoever took MH370. But there’s also a lot we can infer about the psychology of those who did the deed based on the actions that they carried out. In today’s episode, we zoom in five segments of the disappearance and discuss how they can help us narrow down the list of possible perpetrators.

As we wait for the seabed search for MH370’s wreckage to restart, it’s worth taking the time to reflect about what we’ve learned from the search thus far, and what future scanning will tell us about the plane’s likely fate. Under the principles of Bayesian inference, the more of the seabed is searched without the plane’s wreckage being discovered, the greater the probability becomes that the plane simply isn’t there at all. But there’s an escape hatch to this logic: according to an idea called Cromwell’s Rule, the probability will not change so long as we are 100 percent confidant in the proposition that the plane is somewhere in the ocean. In today’s episode whether such confidence is merited, or whether the widespread refusal to consider an alternative is due to a mental blockage or blind spot. I also discuss my new feature article in Vanity Fair magazine about mounting concerns about cyber attacks against airliners around the world — and now, for the first time, in the United States.

Trying to understand what’s going on with the latest seabed search for MH370 is like reading tea leaves. Neither the Malaysian government, which is responsible for solving the mystery, nor Ocean Infinity, the marine survey company looking for the plane, has been very forthcoming about what they’re doing. So it was a nice change of pace when the Minister of Transport, Anthony Loke stood up at a press conference on April 2, 2025, and dropped two important pieces of information in quick succession. The good news was that Malaysia and Ocean Infinity has finally signed a contract for the search, under which Malaysia will pay $70 million if the plane’s wreckage is found. The bad news was that the search, which had been moving along at a brisk pace in previous weeks, would be suspended until the end of the year. To make sense of what is really going on, I turned to the person who has proven to be the best-sourced observer of the seabed search, Kevin Rupp, who shares marine tracking data and other insights on his Facebook page, Ocean Infinity News and Updates. In today’s episode Kevin reveals what was behind the decision to pause the search and what likely lies ahead.

On Friday March 28 the ship scanning the seabed for MH370, Armada 78 06, stowed its AUVs and set sail to the north, putting an end to the second phase of the third seabed search. It is currently underway for Singapore, about 2300 nautical miles to the north, and is scheduled to arrive on April 8.

In today’s episode I discuss what Ocean Infinity accomplished during this last search phase and what might lie in store—and why those of us expecting hard answers from the seabed search are likely going to have to wait a little while.

Last week I took a look at one of the leading lights of the MH370 community, Victor Iannello; today I explore the more complicated back story of Richard Godfrey. I revisit some of the extraordinary claims he has made and unveil the actual nature of his expertise. It turns out to be quite different from what institutions like the ATSB and the BBC have stated to the public.

The seabed search for MH370 remains in full swing. It is now 12 days into Phase 2 of the third seabed search, and we’re talking about whose much-discussed theory of the plane’s disappearance is now being put to the test. I also share some interesting and intriguing information about one of the most important and influential characters in the MH370 community.

In the last episode we talked about how we couldn’t tell what Ocean Infinity was planning, because they weren’t saying anything publicly and the ship tasked with searching the seabed seemed to heading off to South Africa.

Well, fortunately, that didn’t happen. Instead, Armada 78 06 sailed to a stretch of ocean near the 7th arc, arriving there on Tuesday March 11, and it deployed its three search AUVs, which it continues to do today, Saturday March 15.

But what comes next?

With still no information coming out of Ocean Infinity or the Malaysia government, all we can do is read the tea leaves, and infer what their strategy is from the surface movement of the ship. There’s no getting around it: what we’re talking about is informed gueswork, but at least the picture is a lot clearer than it was a week ago. And basically, the news is quite good. In today’s episode I explain why.

It was eleven years ago today that Malaysia Airlines flight 370 disappeared from radar screens over the South China Sea.

Since then millions of square miles of ocean have been searched from the air, hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of seabed have been scanned, a few dozen pieces of debris have been recovered from the shores of the western Indian Ocean, but we still don’t have any conclusive answers as to what happened to the plane or the 239 people aboard.

There is a search on—but it’s not clear to what extent. The ship tasked with scanning the seabed, Ocean Infinity’s Armada's 78 06, has set sail towards the search area, but it is displaying its destination as Cape Town, with a time of arrival so soon that it implies that it will spend little if any time on station in the search area.

Today I’m going to talk about what we know about the confusing status of the search right now and what the possibilities are going forward.