Finding MH370

In early 2009, Iran’s secret proram to build nuclear weapons suffered a series of mysterious failures. Centrifuge machines used to purify uranium suddenly spun out of control and tore themselves apart. More than a thousand machines were destroyed, and Iran’s pursuit of the bomb was seriously delayed. It turned out that the machines had been sabotaged by a computer virus called Stuxnet, a sophisticated malware developed by Israel and the United States.

The attack demonstrated that hackers can not only take control of computer systems, but also reach through those systems to create physical effects in the real world. Today there’s a whole subspeciality of the cyber security field called “cyber physical” devoted to stuydying this kind of attack, and I’m fortunate to have with me today one of the leading lights, Dr Krishna Sampigethaya, a professor at Embry Riddle Aeronatical University, who will talk to us about its relevance to aviation and specifically to MH370. I ask him whether, in his view, MH370 could have been the victim of a cyber-physical attack.

In today’s episode we discuss a new approach to gathering the Lepas data that could help us finally understand how long MH370’s debris was in the water. By tapping into a worldwide community of oceangoing sailors who convence on the social media site No Foreign Land, it might be possible to retrieve data from barnacles that are just about anywhere in the ocean. I tried out this approach by reaching out to cruisers Leslie Graney and Peter Sheaff after I noticed that there boat “Itchy Feet” was quite close to an interesting Global Drifter buoy near the island of Vava’u in Tonga. With incredible graciousness and pluck Leslie and Peter immediately set out on a quest to intercept the buoy, while I looked on from halfway around the world. While the experiment didn’t succeed in achieving all of its goals, it was a great demonstration of how the idea could work in the future, and gave us important ideas for improvements going forward.

The ocean is a big place. So maybe it isn’t that surprising that MH370 wasn’t found.

At least, that’s what you hear a lot of people say.

It’s pretty widely accepted among the general public that the seabed search failed because, well, the ocean is big, why wouldn’t it be hard to find a plane in it?

But actually, the scientists who defined the search area had good reason to think that they knew where the plane had flown to, with a pretty good degree of accuracy. In today’s episode, we discuss how Australian scientists wrestled with the Inmarsat data, trying and discarding several approaches before settling on a method that allowed them to state, with mathematical certainty, where the seabed search would find the plane.

That search, of course, failed. But math is math — if the calculations failed to yield the correct location of the plane, there must be a reason why. A branch of statistics called Bayesian inference offers guidance on what to do next.

Sergei Deineka and Oleg Chustrak were childhood friends who graduated from high school together in Odessa, Ukraine, then served as conscripts in the Soviet Army before reuniting to open a furniture manufacturing and retail business in their home town. They also imported furniture from Malaysia and China, which is why they came to be on MH370 the fateful night of March 8, 2014. They were travelling from a furniture trade show in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to another one in Guanzhou, China.

At least, that’s the story their relatives told officials. But does it really hold water? I’ve spent years scouring government records and interviewing Ukrainians to better understand what Chustrak and Deineka were up to. The gaps in the story are significant—but at the end of the day, it all makes a kind of sense, if you understand the realities of the post-Soviet world.

Meanwhile, we’re still in our first week of the Kickstarter to raise money for the Finding MH370 Project, and we have a long way to go, so if you could make a pledge that would be amazing. Let’s bust open the paradox of the Lepas barnacles!

Today I’m very excited to introduce The Finding MH370 Project, an ocean experiment to gather the first new evidence about the missing Malaysian airliner in seven years. This data will resolve key paradoxes about MH370 and should clarify once and for all what happened to plane and the 239 people aboard.

To this day, the only physical evidence we have are several dozen pieces of debris that washed ashore years later, starting with the flaperon, a piece of the wing found on Réunion island.

Marine organisms living on some of these objects, such as barnacles, can tell us where in the ocean they drifted from. But when they examined these organisms, scientist were puzzled by two paradoxes. First, the barnacles were much too young, suggesting a year-long gap between when the plane disappeared and when the pieces went in the water. Second, they were living all over the entire surface of the flaperon, even above the waterline, something that barnacles never do.

The Finding MH370 project will resolve these paradoxes by getting a real 777 flaperon, outfitting it with sensors and telemetry, and deploying it into the southern Indian Ocean on a 15-month mission. At the end of the experiment, we’ll have a much clearer understanding of how the barnacles grew on the real flaperon and hence how and where the object entered the water.

The project’s final product will be a report detailing our findings, and revealing the implications for what happened to the missing plane.

Everything is lined up for the experiment to get underway — all we need is money to pay for it. To that end I’m launching a Kickstarter, and I’m hopeful that the community of people who care deeply about the fate of MH370—and there are many of us, all around the world—will rally to make this happen. It’s fitting, I think, that the solution to a mystery which affects every one of us should be found as a result of a collective effort.

Starting in 2014, Russia dramatically intensified its hybrid warfare attack against the democratic West, launching hacking operations, misinformation campaigns, assassinating critics, and tampering in elections. Was MH370 a part of this wide-front assault? I’ve argued that it likely was, but whether or not that is the case, what is inarguable is that the success of Russia’s efforts has been aided by the failure of officials and mainstream media outlets to fully understand the true scope and nature of the threat.

Few voices have been more dogged in trying to raise the alarm than Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis who also runs the Kremlin file blog. In today’s episode Olga details the various ways that Russia has attacked the US and its allies and explains the motivation and methods behind them.

In order to understand where MH370’s debris came from, we need to know how marine organisms like the goose barnacle Lepas anatifera typically grow under similar conditions to those that the debris likely experienced. To do that, we’re going to need to collect specimens from buoys managed by an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. The AOML maintains reams upon reams of data that it makes freely available to anyone, scientist or not, all over the world, to use in their research. Mostly it’s used for modelling ocean currents. What we’re interested in isn’t their old data, but real-time information on where each individual buoy is right now, so that we can try to intercept them. On today’s episode I talk with the program’s Acting Deputy Directory, Rick Lumpkin, who knows more about Global Drifters and what happens to them than just about anyone on the planet.

The Lepas anatifera is basically the spirit animal of this podcast. As we’ve discussed before, these animals live all over the ocean, and they attach quickly to anything that’s floating there, and they grow quickly in a predictable way, so just from the size alone you can tell how long something’s been afloat. Also, as the shells grow they incorporate minerals into their shells at a different rate depending on the temperature of the water. That provides a clue as to where in the ocean something might have floated from.

So when the flaperon came ashore on Reunion in July of 2015, search officals were quite excited, because they realized they had new important evidence about where the plane had hit the water. But when they analyzed the shells, they were stumped. The barnacles were too small, meaning that they were too young. And not by a little! Based on what was known about barnacle growth rates at the time, it seemed like there was a year-long gap between how long the object had been floating and when the barnacles had started to grow.

No one knew how to explain that puzzle. Maybe the barnacles grew slower that people realized. Or maybe there are predators in the ocean that strip a piece clean so they have to regrow.

It looked strange, but since the data on Lepas growth rates was pretty thin, the authorities just shrugged. They assumed there had to be a reasonable explanation.

Well, we don’t have to leave it at that. Because in fact there is tons of data out there just sitting there waiting to be collected.

NOAA has over a thousand drifters floating around the ocean at any given time, and you can see them on the web. Click on a map, see the information on the drifter. The data includes where it’s been for every single hour since it was deployed, and what the water temp was, so each of those drifters has a population of Lepas that will let you correlate water temperature with growth rate.

If you get a bunch of them you can also see how robust these correlations are — are they sometimes picked clean, or do they always have barnacles whose size matches the length of time they’ve been in the water.

In today’s episode, I talk about my first effort to collect data from a NOAA drifter. It turned out to be a pretty wild ride!

If you spend any time engaged in the discussion about what happened to MH370, you’ll encounter the idea that the United States, and in particular the shadowy US intelligence community, certainly must know what happened to the plane since they have such a vast and all-encompassing network of assets for gathering information. In effect, the work of the French journalist Florence de Changy, whose work was featured in episode 3 of the Netflix documentary “MH370: The Plane that Disappeared,” is built upon this idea and little else.

An important component of this idea, I think, is that the intelligence apparatus remain a shadowy Other, an unknown and unknowable entity to whom no attributes can be ascribed with any certainty. Because if one were to familiarize oneself with the actual human beings who engage with this work one would quickly realize that these are human beings, with their own foibles and limitations. Which is not to say that they don’t know a great deal; indeed I think they know a lot, and it would be very interesting to know exactly what they know, but in the clear light of day one has to shed the sense that their knowledge is unlimited and that they are capable of doing anything unbounded by comprehensible motives.

Today I’m delighted to be joined by Steven Horrell, a non-resident Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Steve graduated from the US Naval Academy, got a Masters in Strategic Studies frmo the US Army War College and went on to serve in Naval Intelligence for 30 years, including three from 2012 to 2015 at U.S. European Command, where Russia was a major focus. So Steve is in a great position to give us the inside scoop on what the world looks like from the perspective of US military intelligence.

Also in the show I discuss the flaperon project that I’ve been working on with Keelie and, after the interview, I critique the latest MH370 theory that’s been making the rounds in the media.

Finally, a reminder that I’ve added a new feature for paid subscribers of the podcast show page: in addition to the weekly newsletter, you get exclusive access to additional weekly content. Right now I’m remastering all of the shows from the first season, with improved quality and updated information. In addition if you do a paid subscription you earn my undying gratitude, as the financial support goes a long way toward making this work possible. Thanks!

Understanding MH370 requires understanding how strategic planners think. One of the most important concepts in strategic thinking today is the decision loop, which is a way of describing how people gather information, use it to understand their situation, then decide what to do and act upon that decision. This process is sometime referred to as the OODA loop (for “observe, orient, decided, act”) after the formulation by the influential American strategist John Boyd.

To discuss the decision loop, and its role in maneuver warfare, we’re joined by Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute, who recently published a fascinating article entitled “Manoeuvre Warfare and the Electromagnetic Spectrum.” Later in the show, we’ll discuss audience reaction to the UFO episode and talk about an exciting new idea for gathering Lepas barnacle data.