In this episode, PhD Economist Jens Nordvig breaks down the evolving macro environment marked by waning Fed independence, shifting capital flows, and a weakening U.S. dollar. He explains how tariff shocks, long-end bond dynamics, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global investment behavior and challenging the traditional safe-haven role of U.S. assets. Jens also outlines the structural phases of de-dollarization, central bank reserve diversification, and how these factors may signal a long-term dollar downtrend. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(0:00) Introduction

(3:21) Unpacking the Current Regime

(7:43) US Macro Overview

(8:18) Ads (Katana & Eigen)

(9:15) US Macro Overview

(13:44) FX & Dollar Hedging

(18:55) Tariff Impact on Capital Flows

(24:55) Diversifying Central Bank Reserves

(28:56) What’s Holding Up the Dollar?

(29:38) Ads (Katana & Eigen)

(31:12) What’s Holding Up the Dollar?

(36:02) Un-anchoring Inflation Expectations

(41:04) Bond Yields, Fiscal & the Fed

(48:10) US Growth & Investment

(50:03) Fed Cut Expectations

(51:58) Tariff Threat Overstated?

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.