From the New World

Doomberg the green chicken is the publisher of the Doomberg newsletter, which covers energy, finance, food, and more. They are the second ranked paid newsletter after their first month of premium launch. Their team also runs a small consulting company / think tank, which analyzes similar issues.

We discuss branding, consulting, the COVID downturn, inflation, money, rare earth metals, oil, ESG, polarization, bureaucracies, corporate America, W2 tax policies, sensationalism, PR and crisis management, propaganda, and nuclear energy.

Doomberg on Substack:

On Twitter:

https://twitter.com/DoombergT

Samo Burja Podcast:

Doomberg on Cows:

Grim Diesel:

Starvation Diet:

Atlantic Anti-People:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/population-growth-housing-climate-change/629952/

BJ Campbell Egregores:

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

Jacob is a senior writer for Tablet, writer of the scroll newsletter, and host of the Manifesto! Podcast with novellist Phil Klay. We discuss iconoclasm, curiosity, technology and centralization, Andrew Yang, postliberalism, Curtis Yarvin, bureaucracy, Bidenism, the secular and religious worlds, and the importance of quarrel. 

This is the first of three episodes in which I find myself with much greater disagreements with my guests. You may agree with my position, or you might agree with their’s. In any case, I hope you understand and seek to learn from our exchange, whether it’s on the topics of this episode or more controversial ones. Jacob and I discuss this explicitly near the end of the episode, and find great value in speaking with each other despite our disagreements. I hope you will too. Here’s Jacob Siegel. 

The Scroll:

The Manifesto! Podcast:

https://isi.org/modern-age/the-authentic-reactionary/

https://mosaicmagazine.com/response/arts-culture/2020/12/my-quarrel-with-hersh-rasseyner/

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/the-post-liberal-politician

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

Rob is a phD candidate at Cambridge university in moral psychology, the writer of the robkhenderson newsletter and the inventor of the term “luxury beliefs”. Topics include universities, dating markets, analyzing social situations, anxiety in Gen-z, luxury beliefs, signalling, wordcels, and informal networks. 

Rob Henderson on twitter:

https://twitter.com/robkhenderson

Rob K Henderson Newsletter:

Extended Bio on Bari Weiss’ podcast:

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Samo Burja is the founder and president of the consulting company Bismarck Analysis, a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation and a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute. He is also the writer of the Bismarck Brief newsletter, linked below.

In this podcast, we discuss the life of Otto Von Bismarck, the political economy of institutions, narratives as a hedge against failure, the coming energy transition, differences between Europe and America, regulation as vengeance, live players, Elon Musk, and the global financial system.Bismarck Analysis:

https://www.bismarckanalysis.com/#/

Bismarck Brief: 

Samo Burja on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/SamoBurja

The Costs of European “Privacy” Regulation:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30028

EU Artificial Intelligence law:https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/13/1052223/guide-ai-act-europe/

Great founder theory:

https://samoburja.com/great-founder-theory/

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

Richard Hanania is the president of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI), author of Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy, a visiting fellow at UT Austin, and the writer of richardhanania.substack.com.

He is a brilliant analyst and policy thinker of social change, bureaucracy, civil rights law, and political institutions. We discuss those topics, five of his articles linked below, as well as how civil rights law made everything illegal, groomerism as right-wing wokeness, a foreign perspective on US foreign policy and propaganda, how activists disconnect policy from the public, the failure of expertise, the failure of “contrarians”, misuse of philosophy of science and Eric Weinstein, mental illness in Gen-Z, differences between neuroticism and feminization, and the effect of social media on policy.

This week’s audio essay is a shorter one concerning extremists as saboteurs.

Richard Hanania on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/RichardHanania

Richard Hanania’s substack articles:

David Shor on campaign ads:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/09/david-shor-democrats-privileged-college-kid-problem-514992

Pew Research Poll

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology-2/

Yuen Yuen Ang: China's Gilded Age: The Paradox of Economic Boom and Vast Corruption

https://www.amazon.ca/Chinas-Gilded-Age-Economic-Corruption/dp/1108478603

My interview with Steve Hsu: 

fromthenew.world

Richard’s interview with Gail Hariot:

Timestamps

2:20 Audio essay

6:42 Interview Start

8:24 Cactus' Asch Conformity Simulation

8:55 "People are Shockingly Dishonest"

10:57 Late Blooming

14:52 Foreign Policy Lying

18:19 Democracy Narratives

23:13 Tribal Beliefs

26:40 Asian Vote

28:47 Feminization

33:05 Does Social Media Benefit Democrats or Republicans?

41:56 Liberals Read, Conservatives Watch TV

50:45 The Ideal Conservative Strategy

54:25 Florida's School Bills

56:27 Incentive-Aligned Corruption

1:00:54 Demagogues

1:04:58 Rising Conservative Activists

1:07:03 Why Everything is Controlled By Activists (and Therefore Liberal)

1:14:26 Why are obscure right-wing people better than obscure left-wing people?

1:23:13 Moral Panics, and Why Cactus Distrusts the Right

1:25:48 Stats tests violate disparate impact

1:30:50 Is it Feminization or Neuroticism?

1:40:23 Failure of "Expertise"

1:47:02 Eric Weinstein and Philosophy of Science

1:51:05 Too Much Order, Needs More Chaos

1:53:48 Outro

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

Steve Hsu is a professor of theoretical physics and professor of computational mathematics, science, and engineering at Michigan State University, as well as the former VP of Research. He was the founder of digital security companies Safeweb, acquired by Symantec, and Robot Genius, as well as genomics startups Othram and Genomic Prediction. He writes the blog Information Processing. In this podcast, we discuss the history and politics of academia, individual differences in intelligence and athleticism, our experiences with high level mathematics, statistics as an anti-meme, the tension between merit and ideology, math education, theory of mind, differences between the Midwestern and immigrant suburb schools where Steve and I grew up, respectively, and informal networks as alternative credentials.

Steve Hsu on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hsu_steve

Information Processing:

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/On wordcels: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/02/annals-of-psychometry-wordcels-and.html

Bounded cognition (statistics and innumeracy): https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2007/10/bounded-cognition.html

Creators and Rulers: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/08/creators-and-rulers.html

Quantum GDP: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/12/quantum-gdp.html

Terman studies:

Volume 1-3: https://www.amazon.com/Genetic-Studies-Genius-Vol-III/dp/B001LD3MKA

Volume 4: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1947-15005-000

Volume 5: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1959-07905-000

Wordcels and Shape Rotators:

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/cultures/wordcel-shape-rotator-mathcel

Death’s End, by Liu Cixin:

https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0765377101?ref_=dbs_m_mng_rwt_calw_thcv_2&storeType=ebooks

Timestamps:

3:24 Interview Starts

15:49 Cactus' Experience with High Math People

19:49 High School Sports

21:26 Comparison to Intelligence

26:29 Is Lack of Understanding due to Denial or Ignorance?

29:29 The Past and Present of Selection in Academia

37:02 How Universities Look from the Inside

44:19 Informal Networks Replacing Credentials

48:37 Capture of Research Positions

50:24 Progressivism as Demagoguery Against the Self-Made

55:31 Innumeracy is Common

1:06:53 Understanding Innumerate People

1:13:53 Skill Alignment at Cactus' High School

1:18:12 Free Speech in Academia

1:21:00 You Shouldn't Fire Exceptional People

1:23:03 The Anti-Excellence Progressives

1:28:42 Rawls, Nozick, and Technology

1:34:00 Freedom = Variance = Inequality

1:37:58 Dating Apps

1:41:27 Jumping Into Social Problems From a Technical Background

1:41:50 Steve's High School Pranks

1:46:43 996 and Cactus' High School

1:50:26 The Vietnam War and Social Change

1:53:07 Are Podcasts the Future?

1:59:37 The Power of New Things

2:02:56 The Birth of Twitter

2:07:27 Selection Creates Quality

2:10:21 Incentives of University Departments

2:16:29 Woke Bureaucrats

2:27:59 Building a New University

2:30:42 What needs more order?

2:31:56 What needs more chaos?

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

Robin Hanson is a leading research of prediction markets, a professor of economics at George Mason University, author of the Elephant in the Brain and the Age of Em, and the writer of the blog Overcoming Bias.

The audio essay of this show discusses the nature and enemies of “common sense” economic progress, as well as the cost-benefit analysis of going after said enemies.

The topics discussed include prediction markets, market manipulation, game theory, global conformity, the timeline and strength of “wokeness”, innovation, internal selection, self-deception, hidden motives, and opportunities for young innovators.

Robin Hanson’s website:

https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.html

https://twitter.com/robinhanson

Opening Twitter poll:

The Elephant in the Brain:

https://www.amazon.ca/Elephant-Brain-Hidden-Motives-Everyday/dp/0190495995

The Age of Em:

https://www.amazon.ca/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/1536619590

Pew Research Poll

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology-2/

Timestamps:2:27 Audio essay

9:43 Interview Starts

15:55 How People (Don't) Prioritize

22:47 Academia vs. Industry Science

24:39 Prediction Markets

31:27 Manipulating the Market

49:14 Working with DARPA

55:01 Polymarket Ban

58:00 Regulatory Environment of Futures

1:06:03 Why Aren't Prediction Markets More Popular?

1:15:02 Self-Deception

1:29:24 Why People Have Conversations

1:33:33 Institutions

1:41:19 Why Do Institutions Rot?

1:44:57 Midwits and the Bozo Explosion

1:47:57 The World Mob

2:01:38 Global Homogenization

2:04:24 The Threat of Populism vs. Elitism

2:13:32 The Peak of Wokeness

2:18:51 Creating Competition

2:23:52 Young Contrarians

2:27:23 Outro

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe