The start of a new year is always a great time for predictions, so we decided to challenge Frank to provide his thoughts on ten of the most important geopolitical matters impacting Canada and the rest of the world order.  Frank does not disappoint and while not everything you will hear in the next 45 minutes will make you smile, there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon for both politics and the economy.

1:33 - The War in Ukraine

7:53 -China and its Relations with the West

10:06 - The Next Country Threatening Global Unrest

12:10 - Can the Freedom Caucus be Tamed?

16:10 - Will Donald Trump be Indicted?

18:30 - Will Joe Biden Run Again in 2024?

23:52 - Trump's Competitors for Republican Leadership

26:05 - Will Poilievre Lead the Polls at the End of 2023?

32:17 - Is Elon Musk Lord Vader?

35:22 - The Alberta Election – Smith or Notley?

This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023.

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

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For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 34, Frank breaks down the legal woes of Donald Trump and is left to wonder "is it possible to be President of the United States while in jail?"  Of all the cases in front of the former President, Frank thinks it might be the otherwise innocuous and strange situation of the Mar-a-logo documents that is Trump's biggest legal risk.   Frank discusses the implications of a split Congress, indicating that this topic is top of mind with investors and corporate clients post the mid-term elections.  He is watching the Georgia run-off for the 100th Senate seat very closely as a Democratic victory would reduce the influence of Joe Manchin and other senators at the end of the spectrum and would allow the Democrats greater control of Senate Committees.  Turning to Canadian politics, Frank is not as sure as his colleague, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, that the new Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, will win when the province goes to the polls next May.

Chapter Headings

1:20 – The Number 1 Topic Dominating Frank's Investor and Corporate Conversations

4:30 – Donald Trump's Bad Month – What Legal Issue is Trump's Biggest Worry?

17:00 – Mid-Terms – Practical Implications of a Split Congress

24:55 – Frank vs Rona – Who Wins Alberta?

29:35 – Frank Remains Steadfast "There will NOT be a Windfall Tax on Oil and Gas"

33:50 – The New UK Government – Adults are Now in the Room

This podcast was recorded on November 25, 2022.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-34. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 33 of our monthly podcast series on Geopolitics is a special bonus for our listeners.  In this episode, we listen in on a recent interview with The Honorable Rona Ambrose conducted at our 23rd Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference held earlier this month.  In this episode, Rona tackles several important topics on the minds of Canadians including the leadership race in her home province of Alberta and the 411 on the Federal Conservative Party's new leader Pierre Poilievre.   While Rona's Conservative Party background differs from Frank McKenna's Liberal upbringing, the two former leaders and current TD Securities leaders have tremendous mutual respect.  That said, we look forward getting Frank's take on Rona's view that both Danielle Smith and Pierre Poilievre are electable.

This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2022.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-33. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 32, Frank addresses the rhetoric from Alberta's new Premier Danielle Smith who he believes will need to tone down the message in order to be electable next May. The theme of inflation is prevalent, with Frank touching on rising mortgage rates, OPEC's politically motivated decision to cut production and its impact on U.S. mid-terms and the mess caused by U.K. Prime Minister Truss' hugely inflationary and now unwound mini-budget. Frank admits that Russia-Ukraine is at a stalemate with no runway for an off ramp, as they head into winter. Despite all the negative press, Frank talks about his positive outlook on the world as whole, acting as a reminder to take a step back when we are overwhelmed by an endless stream of negative news headlines.

Chapter Headings:

The 411 on Danielle Smith (1:18)

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Lead to a Housing Crisis? (9:40)

OPEC's Politically Motivated Production Cut (13:34)

US Mid-Terms (15:58)

Liz Truss's Mess (21:10)

Something Positive (31:20

This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2022.

For relevant disclosures, visit: https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-32. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 31, Frank and Peter catch up on world events, including the war in Ukraine and Putin's saber rattling over nuclear weapons, the changing political landscape in Europe and the U.K., the U.S. mid-terms and the Conservative Party's new leader in Canada. Frank provides a view from Cap Pele of the damage from Hurricane Fiona, which he considers to be the strongest storm to hit landfall in Canada in recorded history. He also shares his perspective on why U.S. leaders are unable to change the narrative on immigration -- from one of vitriol to one of need given changing demographics .  Peter asks Frank his favourite fishing story from New Brunswick's famous Miramichi River and the two of them finish up with the Blue Jays as we head into the play-off run.

Hurricane Fiona – The Strongest Storm in Canadian History (0:43)

The War in Ukraine – Putin's Nuclear Threat (5:50)

The Mess that Awaits Liz Truss (17:35)

November Mid-Terms (21:55)

Republican Political Stunt over Immigration (25:30)

Mulroney's Advice to Poilievre (33:42)

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

On Episode 29, we cover a wide range of topics, including the difficulties of air travel, and Canada's reputation for being one of the worst countries for delayed flights. Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, discusses the peaceful overthrow of the Government of Sri Lanka, and he reveals which emerging countries are on his watchlist for similar uprisings. Frank also discusses Boris Johnson's exit from UK politics, and his reaction to the Bank of Canada's move to increase interest rates by 100 basis points. Frank concludes the episode with an analysis of the January 6 hearings, including his thoughts on whether the Department of Justice will formally charge President Trump.

Chapter Headings

1:55 – Summer & Air Travel Challenges

6:22 – Explaining A Three-Foot Putt

9:45 – The Implications of The Uprising in Sri Lanka

15:25 – Boris Johnson's Exit from UK Politics

19:20 – Will Trump be Charged?

21:20 – The Bank of Canada's Surprise Interest Rate Hike

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-29

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In this episode, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, takes aim at the highly politicized Supreme Court now that the Republicans are holding a supermajority. How will a very right-wing agenda of reforms to climate change, abortion, and gun laws sit with the majority of Americans, and what does it signal about the Supreme Court? In terms of recent updates on abortion laws, Frank does not believe President Biden's sliding ratings will change ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.  Frank also addresses potential land mines that could be triggered in the Ukraine-Russia war, and he hints that Putin may end up backed into a corner, further complicating the situation. Frank concludes the episode by citing feedback from business leaders and politicians on the hot topic of inflation and the looming threat of a recession.

Chapter Headings

2:21 – The Supreme Court and Roe v. Wade

15:50 – The Supreme Court and West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency

19:54 – Will the Supreme Court Help Biden's Popularity?

24:03 – Potential Land Mines in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

29:10 – Will the Canadian Government Tax Excessive Profits in the Energy Sector?

35:52 – What are Business Leaders and Politicians Saying About Inflation?

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-28

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 27, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, is joined by the Honourable Rona Ambrose. Together, they cover a host of election issues across North America, including the Conservative Party Leadership Race, the Ontario Provincial Election, and the bombshell announcement of Jason Kenney's resignation as Alberta Premier. Frank also touches on the recent tragic events in Uvalde, Texas. He expresses his views on gun reform in the U.S., and he outlines whether this event will be a ballot issue in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. In another discussion, Rona does not believe the leaked Roe v. Wade decision, or recent gun violence, will impact Canadian elections in the coming months. On the global front, Frank offers his perspective on the war in Ukraine, and megatrends that are on the horizon, including energy, agriculture, and pharmaceutical independence, as well as deglobalization. Inflation is also a main talking point, as politicians everywhere confront this topic for the first time in 30 years.

This long-form podcast contains incredible insights from former political leaders that remain connected to the current geopolitical landscape. It is a must-listen for investors who are trying to navigate critical events in the day-to-day markets.

Chapter Headings

1:15 - An Update on War in Ukraine

8:35 - The Rise of Putin Imitators

17:15 - Energy Independence and Other Megatrends

24:30 - Inflation: Is it Time to Fire Central Bankers En Masse?

35:55 - The Conservative Leadership Race

43:18 - Gun Violence and the U.S. Midterm Elections

51:30 - The Surprise Resignation of Jason Kenney

56:26 - The Ontario Election

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-27

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 26, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, tackles the political implications of long-term inflation. He reminds listeners of the 1970s and 1980s when inflation was the number one ballot issue in Canada. Frank also provides a high-level perspective on the war in Ukraine, indicating that the West is "draining the swamp" by isolating Russia and cutting off its lucrative supply of energy to Europe. Frank goes on to highlight how Emmanuel Macron's victory over Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate in France, reduces the risk of a split with the West. Frank details how this could also impact the search for alternative energy solutions, including nuclear energy. Frank concludes the episode by offering sound advice to corporate executives regarding the ESG debate, making an important connection to Ukraine's sovereignty.

Chapter Heading Times

0:43 - The Political Implications of Long-Term Inflation

10:37 - Canada's Time to Shine

16:45 - The War Update

22:40 - Advice on Managing the Ever-Evolving ESG Debate

28:10 - What Macron's Win Means for Europe

31:10 - The Ontario Election: Will Doug Ford Secure Another Majority Government?

Disclaimer

For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-26

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.