Episode 45 comes at you straight from TD's 24th Annual Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference, held November 2nd.  Frank is joined on stage by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group for a panel discussion entitled The Washington Circus. Before Chris and Frank dig in on Washington, they first discuss the emerging threat of a broadening unrest in the Middle East, which Frank feels can and will be contained, but it is a dangerous situation. Chris plays the role of Washington Insider for an update on House negotiations for continued aid to Israel and Ukraine ahead of a potential Government shutdown on November 17th. Turning to the election cycle, Frank addresses the impact of third-party candidates such as RFK Jr., No Labels and Cornel West of the Green Party on both the Democrats and Republicans while Chris adds his thoughts on the likelihood of competition for Trump and/or Biden in the primaries. Frank finishes with an update on India-Canada relations and a passionate plea for Alberta to move on from the idea of separating from the CPP, earning him the first ever audience intra-session ovation in the 24-year history of our conference.

Containing the Israel-Hamas War – 3:35

The Future of Netanyahu – 16:50

An Election Cycle Update – 20:08

Gerrymandering 101 – 33:20

Frank's Message to our Prime Minister about CPP – 52:10

Canada-India – 55:30

This podcast was recorded on November 2, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-45. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Frank McKenna, a proud Canadian, shows his true passion for Canada in Episode 44 first defending Canada in its diplomatic dispute with India over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Member of the Sikh diaspora in Surrey, BC, then arguing against Alberta's potential separation from CPP and finally championing the partnership between The Federal Government and Indigenous communities for the soon to be finished Trans Mountain Pipeline.  Frank believes Canada's actions are enough following the unfortunate incident during Ukrainian President Zelensky's parliamentary visit in Ottawa that has now been politicized in both Canada and Russia and he touches on the impact of a US government shutdown.  The pod finishes up with Frank asking, perhaps rhetorically, for more cheerful topics next month – we make no promises.

Unpacking Canada's Diplomatic Row with India – 4:15

Canada's Embarrassment in Parliament – 20:25

Alberta's Report on Separating from CPP - 23:51

One Step Closer to Trans Mountain Pipeline Completion – 31:42

The US Government Shutdown – 37:56

This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-44. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 43 is entitled "More of the Same" because Frank returns to common threads from previous episodes namely Trudeau, climate, immigration, war, and Trump.  Frank discusses recent meetings with members of the Prime Minister's cabinet who stop by Frank's residence in New Brunswick en route to this week's retreat in PEI.  Top of mind items for Canada's government leaders include the public's growing belief that Ottawa is the primary cause of inflation, whether it is time to slow down on immigration in response to public pleas, and lack of affordable housing for 25-40 year old Canadians. Frank takes aim at last month's alarming Auditor General's report in Ontario on Greenbelt re-zoning, and the decision by the Ford government to press forward with re-zoning despite a growing outcry from opposition leaders.  He also weighs in on Trump, who is again, front and center with a fourth indictment in Georgia. Finally, Frank finishes up talking summits, both at Camp David, and in South Africa, where BRIC members discuss options for reducing dependence on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

1:12 - Social Media's Impact on Natural Disasters

6:20 - Greenbelt Controversy in Ontario

11:56 - Trump – Indictment #4 – Will Supreme Court Be Ultimate Arbiter?

19:44 - RFK Jr – Legitimate Threat to Biden?

23:44 - Trudeau's Cabinet Retreat – Changing the Narrative on Inflation

28:29 - Southeast Asia Comes to Camp David – Poking China

30:30 - BRICS Summit – Takeaways

This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2023

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 42, Frank checks in from his summer location in New Brunswick for a wide ranging discussion on a busy geopolitical calendar.  We start close to home with a recap of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent speech to Frank's charity summer golf event on the East Coast.  Not surprisingly, Clinton's remarks centered on US politics, including the prospect of a Donald Trump Republican Party nomination and the likelihood of a third party disruptor at the 2024 election.  Frank compares the situation in Netanyahu's Israel to a 2nd Trump term in the Oval Office and suggests that no one should take for granted democratic norms in the Western world.   After brief remarks on the NATO summit, we pivot to Canadian politics and discuss the Trudeau cabinet shuffle and its potential impact on the next party in power in Canada.   Before we finish on the Blue Jays, Frank gets out his crystal ball for a very interesting look at the world from his lens 10 years from now.

1:32 - Secretary Clinton visits Frank's East Coast Charity Event

7:30 - The Prospects of a Third Party Disruptor in 2024

13:38 - The World Reacts to Netanyahu's Move to Weaken the 19:21 - Supreme Court in Israel

23:04 - Trudeau's Cabinet Shuffle

28:28 - Governing Canada with Just One Premier Wearing Liberal Stripes

31:55 - The Future of the World 10 Years from Now

This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2023

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 41, Frank breaks down the startling developments that unfolded in Russia over the weekend, with the mercenary Russian army known as the Wagner Group apparently turning on President Putin and leading to a near civil war.  We switch to US politics where Frank downplays the risk of an uprising should former President Trump be sent to jail for one of his many legal issues.  Other topics discussed include the recent trip to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Canadian wildfires, and David Dodge's criticism of Canada's immigration policies.

.

1:47 - What is Going On in Russia?

11:45 - The Risk of a Trump Uprising

16:45 - Blinken's China Trip – A Good Result

21:23 - Canadian Wildfires

28:45 - David Dodge's Criticism of Canada's Immigration Policies

This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2023

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Frank is joined by his colleague at TD Securities, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, for a wide-ranging discussion on Canadian politics including the upcoming Alberta Election, where a recent own goal by Rachel Notley on corporate taxes might be the catalyst for a UCP victory next week.

Rona and Frank also discuss politics in Ottawa, including the assertion by former Prime Minister Jean Chretien that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's policies are even right of Stephen Harper.  Rona finishes up with some advice on social media for aspiring politicians, especially females.

2:00 - Handicapping the Alberta Election 

8:56 - Smith's Pivot, Notley's Own Goal on Taxes 

13:38 - What Ottawa is Watching in Alberta? 

20:37 - Is Poilievre Right of Harper? 

29:30 - Will Trudeau Run in 2025?

37:42 - Canada - China Diplomatic Tit for Tat - is it Over? 

43:02 - Politics and Social Media

This podcast was recorded on May 23, 2023.

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 39, Frank invites his new colleague from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, Chris Krueger, to the monthly podcast for a discussion on US politics.  The two geopolitical experts discuss potential solutions to the pending debt ceiling, how Trump's legal woes work to his advantage and who might be his credible competitors in the Republican Primary.  Frank covers some high level conversation topics with business leaders, and both Chris and Frank provide names of their ideal Presidential candidates.

2:00 – What Frank is Hearing from Business Leaders?

5:10 – Solving the Debt Ceiling Before Doom

16:40 – Trump's Competition in the Republican Primary

24:35 – Trump's Legal Woes Become His Running Mate

28:20 - Will Biden Face Competition in the Democratic Primary?

38:10 – The Ideal Presidential Candidate

This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2023

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 38, Frank returns from a busy schedule of travelling the world this past month and provides a live eye view on several important hot button geopolitical topics.  He has just returned from a visit to the Middle East, where he met with senior political figures in Israel and Jordan, all of whom condemned the move by Israeli leader Netanyahu to condense power inside his government.  Frank also shares his views on French President Macron's decision to take on the controversial topic of pension reform which resulted in countrywide protests against a plan that means public sector employees will need to work two more years before qualifying for a full pension.  Additionally, he weighs in on government actions to support banks, and also the recent State Visit to Ottawa by President Biden, which Frank argues was a unequivocal success with great tone from the top.

Chapter Headings

1:00 - Biden State Visit to Canada

8:00 - Canada's Federal Budget Takeaways

11:00 - Poilievre's Platform Plans

15:50 - Israel – Frank's on the Ground Perspective

22:30 - Macron Pulls the Pin on Pension Reform

32:10 - Government Reaction to a New Bank Crisis

This podcast was recorded on March 28, 2023.

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 37, Frank deep dives the immigration complexities of North America, in particular the issue of refugees seeking asylum from the USA into Canada via irregular ports of entry not covered under existing immigration agreements between the two countries. He admits there is no easy solution to the US's Southern border refugee problem which is complicated by the fact it is not just Mexicans using its border to enter the US illegally.  Frank discusses the rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine at the one year anniversary of the War and explains why an audit of Western Aid during a war is all but impossible.He finishes with a look at the Dominion Voting Machines lawsuit of FOX News, which judged in the court of public opinion is a slam dunk victory for the plaintiff.

Chapter Headings

1:55 - Roxham Road Immigration Leakage

8:50 – The US's Immigration Issues its Southern Border

15:10 - Intervention in Haiti

22:05 - Russia-Ukraine War – the One Year Anniversary

25:50 - The Audit Process for Ukrainian Aid

30:31 - FOX and the Dominion Lawsuit Texts

35:00 - The Poorly Named Inflation Reduction Act

This podcast was recorded on March 2, 2023.

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 36 returns to addressing the geopolitical topics of the day. The episode begins with a discussion of the document storage security breaches by various important US politicians, a story that is keeping cable television political commentators busy.  Frank also addresses the topic du jour at this year's World Economic Forum, geo-economic fragmentation on the back of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, the declining relations between China, and tensions between the US and Europe over the US's generous subsidies for electric vehicles.We finish up in North America discussing infrastructure investing in Canada, and the US debt ceiling, including talk on Wall Street of a solution that allows debts to be paid to bondholders exclusively while the government works to solve the debate. 

Chapters

0:48 - Are All Document Breaches Created Equal?

11:15 - Geo-Economic Fragmentation

17:09 - Is Sending Tanks to Ukraine Crossing a Red Line?

21:31 - The Debt Ceiling and "Payment Prioritization"

25:40 - Will Canada Search for Partners for Infrastructure?

This podcast was recorded on January 30, 2023.

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.