Episode 70 of Geopolitics is a bonus episode taken from a panel at our recent Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference. Frank McKenna is joined by his TD colleague The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman, TD Securities, and former leader of the Conservative Party in Canada, for a discussion that includes the on again off again trade negotiations between Canada and the US and a review of last week's budget in Canada. While Frank admits the budget was likely over-hyped and a disappointment, Rona takes direct aim at the fact the incumbent government clearly stated that younger generations will need to suffer and made no attempts to appease the interest of the other parties in parliament with its budget decisions. Frank admits he still does not know what Trump's end goal in trade negotiations with Canada is but believes the end deal between the two countries is likely to be much narrower than anticipated originally.   

This podcast was recorded on November 6, 2025

Chapter Times:

02:09 - Trump's Real Motivation for Suspending Trade Negotiations

20:33 - The View Inside the Republican Party on Trade

23:09 - Supreme Court Appears Skeptical of Trump's Use of IEEPA

28:14 - Signals from Off Cycle US Elections

34:54 - Gerrymandering

41:07 - First Take on Canada's Budget

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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In Episode 69, Frank invites Chris Krueger, Strategist with TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, to join the pod to help navigate the fast-moving developments in Washington including the government work stoppage, Canada-US trade negotiations, and the postmortem of President Trump's recent Whitehouse meeting with Ukraine President Zelensky. Frank describes trade negotiations as slogging along given that the two countries have incredibly inter-twined economies, and a complex trade and security relationship. Pipelines are back in the news and Frank weighs the pros and cons of a Keystone restart or pipeline to the Northern BC Coast with continued expansion of existing infrastructure. Chris provides our mostly Canadian audience with a 101 on gerrymandering, and its impact on mid-term elections. The two geopolitical experts finish up discussing the merits of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump and potential end to the war in Ukraine.

This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2025

Chapter Times:

01:31 - Slogging Through Canada-US Trade Negotiations

13:39 - Carney's Balancing Act with Canada's Premiers

17:09 - Setting the Record Straight on Tariff Revenues

22:20 - Pipelines Back in the News in Canada

29:07 - Explaining Washington's Work Stoppage

33:53 - Is Stellantis's Brampton Plant Closure the Canary?

38:33 - Gerrymandering Gone Wild

43:41 - Peace Negotiations in Middle East and Ukraine

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Frank comes to the September podcast taping in a somber mood, strange for someone who prides himself as the eternal optimist.  What has Frank in a mood? Well, he lists several issues with the current US Administration that has him questioning the United States's position as leader of the free world. Meanwhile he is very concerned about the prospect Trump triggers the shotgun clause on CUSMA wiping out the existing agreement, a possibility allowed under Article 34.6 of the Agreement. Hence the need for Canada's Prime Minister Carney to continue to strengthen trading relationships outside of the US such as was evidenced with his recent meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Frank likes the appointment of Dawn Farrell to head the Major Projects Office and is bullish on the prospects that the one project, one review, one decision two-year time frame for Major Projects is realistic. Frank provides his thoughts on free speech in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination and on Putin's addiction to War. Finally, Frank cracked his familiar smile again when talking about his beloved Blue Jays as we do at the end of every podcast.

This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025 at 6 pm EST

Chapter Headings:

00:52 Frank's Somber Mood Towards Canada-US Relations

06:33 Will Trump Renegotiate or Blow-Up CUSMA?

20:50 Carney Branches Out Trading Relationships

23:09 Dawn Farrell and Canada's Five Major Infrastructure Projects

28:58 Canada Joins Other G7 Countries in Recognizing Palestinian State

34:33 The Polarized US Political Landscape

41:26 Putin's Addiction to War

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Frank is back after a month off with a lot to cover in the current Episode 67.  He starts with a review of Canada's handling of forest fires, an area where Canada is arguably a world leader, and what can be done in the new normal to mitigate risk of future forest fire growth.  Frank discusses the pros and cons of back to work legislation by the Federal Government used in the Air Canada flight attendant strike and is frustrated whenever one party has too much leverage in work disruptions.  After covering the latest on trade negotiations between Canada and the US and the potential sale of infrastructure assets by Canada's Federal Government, he switches gears to US politics, finishing up on Trump's dramatic efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine – Russian war and the gerrymandering of districts fight on-going in Texas.

This podcast was recorded on August 19, 2025.

Chapter Headings

04:40 - Forest Fire Mitigation Tools

10:08 - Air Canada Strike Resolution is Teaching Moment

18:25 - Canada's New Normal Trade Arrangement with US

33:23 - Will Canada's Federal Government Sell Infrastructure Assets?

37:38 - Trump's Full Court Press to End the War in Ukraine

44:39 - Gerrymandering in Texas – A Precursor to More Partisan Politics

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Frank's focus during the June episode of Geopolitics was on analyzing the fluid situation in the Middle East following Israel's 12-day war with Iran and the US's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. Stepping back to the catalyst event for this war, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu's order to take out Iranian military leaders, Frank believes this decision is more about Netanyahu's political survival than a tactical move to take advantage of a weakened group of Iranian proxies. The Iranian-Israel war also took center stage at the recent G7 Summit hosted by Canadian Prime Minister Carney, an event partially hijacked by President Trump's decision to leave early to address the Middle Eastern unrest. Prior to his departure, Trump did meet with Carney and the two leaders agreed to work out a comprehensive bi-lateral trade and security agreement within 30 days, an announcement that brings with it some skepticism as to what such an agreement will look like and whether Section 899 tax issues will be included. The conversation ends where it always seems to end, with Frank continuing to be more bullish on his beloved Blue Jays than the host.

This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2025.

Chapter Headings:

03:08 President Trump's Attack on Iran

10:28 Political Calculus for Trump's Iran Missive

16:00 Netanyahu's Decision to Open Another War Flank with Iran

20:03 Trump's G-7 Departure and Relationship with Carney

24:46 Evaluating Carney's Decision to Invite India's Moti to G-7

31:10 The Latest on Section 899

35:50 Is Danielle Smith Setting the Bar Too High with BC Pipeline Chatter?

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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For the first time in four months of our podcast series, the focus of Frank's attention is not centered around tariffs. This month Frank starts with a detailed analysis of Prime Minister Carney's cabinet, a carefully constructed team of ministers balancing geographic, gender and ethnic interests from across the country. Frank addresses comments from Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith on separation, suggesting she would be better off leading than following her base of support. On a positive note, Smith seemed more bullish on the prospects for energy infrastructure builds across the country following comments from Quebec Premier Legault, who previously did not support building pipelines through his province. Frank discussed Prime Minister Carney's visit to the Whitehouse where he received good marks for his messaging on Canada's sovereignty which did not require confrontation with the President. We then move the discussion to global issues, covering handshake trade deals, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, which Frank suggests are closer to the end than the beginning, and the recent flare up between Pakistan and India in Kashmir. He finishes with a suggestion that the Jays are better than their record, a point of view that was not supported by the normally bullish podcast host.

This podcast was recorded on May 21, 2025.

Chapter Headings:

01:28 - The Carney Cabinet

06:21 - Smith and Alberta Separation

12:50 - Spending on Energy Infrastructure

21:53 - Bullish Tone for Canada

28:50 - Carney and Trump

34:36 - Trump and Tariffs

40:30 - Is Trump's Nobel Prize Slipping Away?

43:31 - India-Pakistan Flare Up

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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In Episode 64, Frank covers the Canadian election from top to bottom, including addressing unflattering comments about Canada as a country from the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and the Premier of Alberta. Frank addresses each of the major platform concerns of Western leaders as it relates to natural resource and pipeline development including Bill C69, the energy cap and industrial carbon tax.  He provides a 101 lesson on equalization payments, a source of frustration for Western provinces who typically are not recipients of transfers from the Federal Government by virtue of low tax bases and resource reserves.  The episode then shifts to Canada-US relations, where Frank addresses President Trump's interference with the Canadian election and expectations for renegotiation of a trilateral trade agreement, which he suggests Canada reluctantly pursue, but with eyes wide open and asks from the north side of the border.  He finishes with an update on the war in Ukraine and, of course, laments the state of play of his beloved Toronto Blue Jays.

This podcast was recorded on April 29, 2025.

Chapter Headings:

00:29 - First Take on Election Results and Future of Unelected Pierre Poilievre

09:34 - Regional Interests Take Centre Stage

13:17 - Addressing Western Canadian Demands

28:17 - Equalization Payments

36:26 - Trump and the Canadian Election

42:50 - The 90 Day Tariff Negotiation

48:00 - Back and Forth on Russia-Ukraine

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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In Episode 63, the focus of discussions in on two main topics: new Prime Minister Mark Carney's early days at the helm of Canada, and tariffs. Frank discusses Carney's decision to travel to Europe before the US, a move that was criticized by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and the significant downsizing of the new Liberal cabinet, a move that was sure to hurt some feelings inside the caucus. Frank provides the pros and cons of choosing Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to represent Canada in negotiations with President Trump, and he debunks the recent claims by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Carney didn’t deserve credit for Canada's response to the GFC. In the tariff discussion, Frank dismisses Trump's repeated exaggerations about trade deficits equaling some sort of subsidy provided to Canada from the US.  Frank counters that the existing trade deficit is not a subsidy that costs the United States jobs, instead it is a function of our abundance of raw material inputs that the United States imports from Canada. Frank also lays to rest any notion that Canada's dairy sector is not open for business with US suppliers; in fact, the US has yet to use up more than ½ of its dairy quotas with Canada since the 2018 CUSMA agreement set new free trade supply limits. Frank finishes with some ideas for Canada's government to meet its NATO spending commitments, and his belief in the need to keep momentum moving forward with respect to the elimination of intra-provincial trade barriers.

This podcast was recorded on March 17, 2025.          

Chapter Headings

00:25 - Friendship Day in Colorado

03:44 - Carney's Cabinet and First Trip to Europe

09:02 - Carney or Poilievre – Who is Best Positioned to Negotiate with Trump?

14:28 - Carney on Taxes

16:41 - Harper on Carney's Contribution to Canada's GFC Response

19:03 - Two East Coast Premiers Retire – is this Coincidence?

21:12 - Trump's Exaggerations Used to Justify Tariffs on Canada

28:38 - Meeting NATO Defense Spending Target

36:24 - Understanding Dairy Quotas – Not Just a Canada Issue

48:08 - Is Momentum for Removing Intra-Provincial Trade Barriers Sustainable?

50:25 - Caught in the Blue Jays Vortex…Again

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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In Episode 62, Frank is joined by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group to discuss the first 30 days of the Trump Administration, and the on-going trade war with Canada. Chris outlines his biggest surprises to date, including the sheer torque of rulemaking from the executive branch - he figures his team in Washington undershot the runway when it suggested Trump 2.0 would be "all gas, no break."

Frank provides insights into Canada's strategy for defending itself and thinks the current alignment across the country will be key to victory against the US tariffs, but he agrees with former Prime Minister Harper in suggesting that Canadians will need to be prepared to endure some hardships through this difficult period. He also explains the meaning of Interprovincial trade barriers, suggesting that they act as a 7% tariff on goods moving from province to province.  

Chris also shares his biggest surprises to date in Trump's second term, including the influence of Elon Musk. Both Chris and Frank think that the right leaning Supreme Court will give Trump leeway to continue his changes in Washington but will keep some guardrails in place.

This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2025.

Chapter Headings

03:23 Newfoundland Premier’s “Chilling” Feedback from Trump Team

10:38 Next Steps on Canada-US Tariff Debate

15:40 Will Supreme Court Support Guard Rails for Executive Branch?

24:40 Flooding the Zone to Change the Narrative in US

31:22 Elon Musk’s Influence on Whitehouse

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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Episode 61 is a deep dive into Canadian politics. Frank starts by handicapping the Liberal leadership race to elect Canada's next Prime Minister, a leader whose first order of business will be filling the leadership vacuum in Ottawa as Canada fights back against tariff threats from President Trump. He reminds Canada's provincial leaders of the importance of putting aside regional differences in favor of a Team Canada approach.  Frank takes listeners back to Economics 101 where he discusses the theory of comparative advantage, while suggesting that businesses on both sides of the border are holding back investment while the period of tariff uncertainty continues. He addresses the trolling by President Trump of Canada and makes a passionate plea to Americans to understand that while we are friends, we want to remain Canadian. The conversation then moves to global affairs where we discuss the Israel-Hamas peace agreement, the likely end of the Ukraine War and other potential hot spots for geopolitics, including one that is surprisingly close to home.

This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2025.          

Chapter Headings

00:50 - The Race to be Canada's Prime Minister

06:24 - Trump Tariff Decision on Hold

10:20 - Leadership Vacuum in Ottawa

11:50 - Economics 101 – Tariffs and Comparative Advantage

14:45 - Canada's Response to the Wildfires in LA

18:12 - Governor Trudeau and Manifest Destiny

23:06 - Justin Trudeau's Legacy and Biggest Regret

26:50 - Identity Politics

30:40 - Predicting the Election Outcome

32:35 - Does the Israel-Hamas Peace Agreement Have Legs?

36:30 - The Trump Oligarchy

37:40 - Zelensky's Dealmaking with Trump

39:42 - Other Potential Geopolitical Hot Spots in 2025

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

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