Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

Episode 56 is a mostly Made in Canada geopolitical discussion. Frank covers the NDP decision to end its supply and confidence agreement with Prime Minister Trudeau and his Liberal Party, leading to speculation of a snap election soon in Canada.  Frank handicaps the three provincial elections in Canada in October in BC, Saskatchewan and his home province of New Brunswick where it is a close race dictated by regional differences in voter preferences.  As two months have passed without a decision by Trudeau to step down, it appears to Frank like the Prime Minister will stay on to lead the Liberals through the next election.  Frank puts concern over border security in Quebec in perspective as minor in comparison to the southern border of the US and then finishes the conversation with US election predictions and a discussion on the disturbing escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

Chapter Headings

00:46 - NDP Ends Supply and Confidence – What is its Calculus?

03:35 - Tick Tock – Time Passes and Trudeau is Still Leader

07:52 - Handicapping Three Provincial Elections in October

13:27 - Frank Meets Liberal Cabinet on CAD-US Relations – Takeaways

18:30 - Border Security – Quebec-New York State

24:22 - Canada's Obsessions with US Politics – Is it Unhealthy?

26:38 - 40 Days Until the US Election

31:49 - Israel's Pre-Emptive Strike on Hezbollah

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 55, Frank discusses Ukrainian tactics in its war with Russia, suggesting that the incursion into Russian territory and recent drone attacks are more than just bargaining chips.  Crossing back to North America, we discuss the on-going love in with the Harris-Walz ticket, and the importance of Trump vs Harris on September 10.  Frank downplays the significance of an RFK Jr defection to Trump's camp as it remains unclear whether the existence of RFK Jr as a third-party candidate helps or hurts the Republicans.  Before we finish with our proverbial critique of the Jays, Frank offers his thoughts on the importance of public-private partnerships in fixing Canada's aging infrastructure.

Chapter Headings

05:22 - Ukraine's Aggressive Move into Russia

11:14 - Democrats Control the News Cycle

18:24 - Is RFK Important to Trump?

23:57 - Trudeau's Calculus

28:20 - How to Fix Canada's Aging Infrastructure

This podcast was recorded on August 21, 2024

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Who says the summer is boring?  In Episode 54, Frank admits there is not enough time in the day to keep up with the current geopolitical landscape.  After a brief history of Frank's storied career, this month's discussion moves quickly to President Biden's decision to not seek re-election, the rise of Kamala Harris and her candidates for running mate and then pivots to Trump, Trump 2.0 (JD Vance), the assassination attempt and the Florida judge's decision to throw out the document's case on a technicality.  We then switch gears to Canada where Frank offers his thoughts on the parallels between Biden's decision to not seek a second term and Prime Minister Trudeau's current dismal showing at the polls, suggesting that a decision on Trudeau's future will be made soon if he plans to end his run in 2025.  We ended with a question about the possibility the new UK government will revisit Brexit, a decision Frank suggests ranks in the top 3 worst political decisions of the last half century. On the topic of separation votes, Frank discusses how he mobilized citizens of New Brunswick to join a rally in Montreal ahead of the Quebec separation vote in 1995, one of his prouder, yet nerve-racking moments as Premier.

Chapter Headings:

00:30 - Frank's Storied Career

05:33 - The End of President Biden

17:44 - Trump's Eventful Two Weeks

23:42 - The Biden-Trudeau Parallels

31:28 - Will the New Starmer Government in the UK Revisit Brexit?

36:24 - Mobilizing the Citizens of New Brunswick in 1995 to Save Canada

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 53 is all about elections.  Frank first covers the upcoming twin bill of elections on the other side of the Atlantic starring the French and English. The former coming as quite a surprise to the market, and the latter appearing to be a foregone conclusion, with the only item left to decide being the future of the UK Conservative Party which is expected to be obliterated at the polls on July 4.  In France, Frank questions President Macron's calculus for calling a surprise summer election.  Believing he could be holding together a centrist coalition while being threatened on both flanks, with the right-wing National Rally party occupying first place in polling, and a left-wing coalition also leading the incumbent government.  We then move on to discuss two recent important elections. First, Mexico and the success of out-going leader AMLO's hand-picked successor Claudia Sheinbaum, who bucked the global trend of incumbent government disruption in other elections.  Then we discuss President Modi's inability to garner a majority victory in India despite having tailwinds, including a powerful social media campaign.  Finally, Frank offers his opinion on the importance of the US Presidential debates, and Trump's never-ending Apprentice-like search for his November running mate.

Chapter Headings:

03:08 - Bank of Canada Rate Decision

06:18 - Frank's Hot Button Topics: Elections and Capital Gains

09:21 - Macron's Gambit

15:10 - Starmer's Steamroll in the UK

18:02 - Future of the Conservative Party

22:48 - AMLO's Protégé in Mexico

28:16 - Reining in Modi in India

33:13 - Importance of US Election Debates and Trump Running Mate

This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2024.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Episode 52 takes us on a journey across several continents and covers a wide spectrum of topics. After remembering the legacy of his good friend and New Brunswick business icon Arthur Irving, who passed away recently, Frank covers the Sunak government's decision to call an early election in the U.K. and the trend toward authoritarian governments around the world, calling it a cyclical rather than secular trend. Frank checks in on new Argentine President Javier Milei's efforts to reduce the size of government and services in order to improve its financial position, a process that is complicated and requires compromise. He tells the U.S. Senators complaining to Trudeau about Canadian defense spending to stand down as the country's defense spending is moving in the right direction. Finally, he covers the U.S. election and suggests that despite his likely guilty verdict, Trump's opposition ought to change the narrative from "Trump is bad" to "Trump is going to get off".

Chapters

00:37 – Canada Loses Another Business Icon Arthur Irving

05:36 – Sunak's Surprise UK Election Call

12:03 – Is the Move to Authoritarian Leaders a Secular or Cyclical Change?

15:04 – Checking in on Argentina's President Javier Milei

20:34 – Bi-Partisan Letter From Senators to Trudeau on Defense Spending

24:39 – Trump the Martyr

This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2024.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

n Episode 51, we circle back to Canada and focus on some of the key issues impacting our beautiful country.  After a quick discussion on the apparent de-escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which Frank is hopeful is permanent, we spend most of the podcast on budget related matters.  Frank discusses the government's calculus in choosing to increase inclusion rates on capital gains over a windfall tax on food or energy companies, and then applauds the government's decision to appoint Stephen Poloz to work with Canadian pension funds on investment opportunities domestically.  He then breaks down the budget's $8.5 billion dollar commitment to housing and its increase in defense spending, a move that was greeted with applause by other NATO members, including the US.  He finishes the podcast lamenting the government's failed messaging on its carbon tax and rebate program.  On a positive note, Frank shows some in-season love to the Blue Jays for perhaps the first time in modern history.

This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2024.

Chapter Headings

0:52 - De-escalation in Middle East

8:22 - Ottawa Chooses Capital Gains over a Windfall Tax on Food or Energy

17:20 - Poloz on Pension Funds

25:00 - Canada Moving Closer to its 2% of GDP Target for Defense Spending

28:03 - Are We Spending Enough on Housing?

32:13 - The Failed Messaging for Canada's Carbon Tax and Rebate System

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In Episode 50, Frank invite's our colleague Chris Krueger to the podcast to help our listeners navigate the next 8 months until the November US Election.  We cover a lot of ground in 45 minutes, including the importance of foreign policy on the US Election, Democratic pressure on Israeli leader Netanyahu to mitigate civilian casualties, how Biden can change the narrative on the US Economy, the Octogenarian age issue of the candidates, Trump's legal woes, and the potential for third party candidates to impact the outcome of the election.  Finally, Frank takes a moment to remember the legacy of his good friend, former Prime Minister of Canada Brian Mulroney.

Chapter Headings

The Legacy of Canada's 18th Prime Minister Brian Mulroney

Importance of Foreign Policy on US Election

Can Biden's Position on Israel Flip Swing States?

Budget Issues: The Southern Border and Ukraine

Changing the Narrative on the US Economy

West, RFK Jr and Stein: The Impact of Third Party Candidates

Biden's Age and the SOTU

The Latest on Trump's Legal Woes

This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2024

Disclaimer

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In this episode, Frank discusses the very active calendar of events in the War in Ukraine, Trump's wins and losses in the primaries and the courts respectively, along with recent developments in China as relations with the US continue to thaw.  Frank also provides a history lesson on how close Canada came to owning the Turks and Caicos Islands and covers off some of the good news stories in global geopolitics.

Chapter Headings

5:26 - New Developments in the War in Ukraine

14:18 - Trump's Eventful Month – Can he pay his chits?

22:44 - Protests Erupt in Israel Calling for Netanyahu's Resignation

28:08 - What is New in China?

30:06 - Frank's back on the Jays Bandwagon – that didn't take long

This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2024.

Disclaimer

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

Back by popular demand, in Episode 48 Frank returns to the predictions game on 10 geopolitical topics important in Canada, the US and around the world in 2024.  Topics covered in this predictions episode cover a wide ranging set of issues including: the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau continues to lead the Liberal Party, immigration issues in Canada and at the southern border the United States, the next phase of the Canada-India diplomatic row, as well as a complete analysis of the US election and former President Donald Trump's legal woes that will likely play a part in the election result on November 5th.  We finish covering three global hot spots, the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas dispute, and the likelihood North Korea moves from rhetoric to action in its tough talk with its neighbor in South Korea.

Chapter Headings

1:02 – 1. Will Liberal Leaders Tell Prime Minister Trudeau it is time to retire?

4:50 – 2. What happens to Canada-India Relations if and when Assassination Evidence is Made Public?

8:16 – 3. Immigration Problems for Canada and at the Southern Border of the US

19:16 - 4. Predicting the Outcome of Former President Trump's Legal Woes

25:06 - 5.  Name the Democratic and Republican Leaders that Face off on September 16th at the First Presidential Debate?

25:29 – 6. Who Wins the US Election?

29:17 – 7. Who Controls the House and Senate after November 5th?

30:54 - 8. Is there an Off Ramp in 2024 to end the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

33:32 - 9. Does the Israel-Hamas Conflict End this year and, if yes, then what is the catalyst?

36:50 - 10. Will North Korea Flex its Muscles on South Korea?

40:36 - Quick Hitters – Frank's Take on CPI, WTI, the S&P 500 and the Stanley Cup and World Series Champions

41:47 - A Review of 2023 – Frank's Winners and Losers

This podcast was recorded on January 29, 2024.

Disclaimer

This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

In our last episode before the calendar turns to 2024, the conversation begins in Israel where Prime Minister Netanyahu struggles to maintain support for his war against Hamas. Next, we shift to Russia, where President Putin warned his neighbor Finland, a recently minted NATO member, that he will be assigning military to the Russia-Finland border area despite acknowledging he has no territorial rights over NATO nations. Back in Canada, Frank is critical of Quebec's decision to raise language standards and tuition costs for out of province students, a blow to McGill and Concordia along with the City of Montreal who will suffer due to a lack of enrollment and corresponding reductions in revenue. The conversation then moves on to David Dodge's recent paper on improving productivity for Canada, a problem that Frank thinks is worthy of a Royal Commission. We finish with a review of Canada's proposed Cap and Trade system to address oil and gas emissions and a postmortem of Argentina's new President Javier Mileil's first week on the job.

Chapters

1:26 – Netanyahu's Western Support Crumbling

9:28 – Putin's Warning to Finland

14:50 – A Blow to English Speaking Universities in Quebec

18:28 – Solving Canada's Productivity Gap

26:00 – Canada's Cap and Trade Solution

31:30 – Mileil's First Week on the Job

This podcast was recorded on December 18, 2023.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-47. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.