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Global Commodities: $45 is the new $55
President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increase drilling. However, reducing royalties and taxes, easing methane regulations, and streamlining federal drilling permits could lower breakeven costs by $10/bbl for oil and $0.60/MMBtu for gas. On a production-weighted average basis, this would reduce the breakeven point for US oil production from $55 to $45. Ultimately, the impact of these lower costs on US oil production depends on the decisions of the 275 independent companies in the upstream shale sector.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895361-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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By J.P. Morgan Global Research
4.2
7474 ratings
President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increase drilling. However, reducing royalties and taxes, easing methane regulations, and streamlining federal drilling permits could lower breakeven costs by $10/bbl for oil and $0.60/MMBtu for gas. On a production-weighted average basis, this would reduce the breakeven point for US oil production from $55 to $45. Ultimately, the impact of these lower costs on US oil production depends on the decisions of the 275 independent companies in the upstream shale sector.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895361-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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