The US Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that in the first eleven months of 2022, American drivers used 10 kbd less gasoline than in the corresponding period the year before and 540 kbd less fuel than in 2019—a surprisingly weak outcome given that Americans collectively traveled more last year than in 2021 and drove a similar amount of miles as in 2019. We see a modest increase in US gasoline demand in 2023 and a further improvement in 2024, but given the structural shifts in the US gasoline market, peak gasoline demand now appears to have been 9.85 mbd, set in August 2019. A structural decline in US gasoline consumption will reverberate globally given US gasoline accounts for 9% of global oil demand. The implications will be both on refining—via a mismatch in supplies of products and price spikes—and the quality of crude as focus of refiners shifts from fuels to chemicals and from crude to natural gas liquids as a feedstock.  

Speakers

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2023

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