Speaker: 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.

This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.

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