OPEC+ has been cutting oil output since November and after Monday’s announcement of additional cuts, the alliance will be holding back more than 4 mbd from the market. Yet the moves have so far failed to significantly tighten balances and lift oil prices, despite demand running above expectations. The group’s recent struggles may reveal a difficult underlying trend: non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand. To fully regain market power this year, we estimate OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 0.7 mbd in 2H23 in addition to already announced reductions, with the full cut extended into 2024.

 

Speakers:  Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities

This podcast was recorded 7/7/2023.

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