June 20, 2025

Global Commodities: The unintended consequences of destabilizing Iran

11 minutes

Regime changes in oil-producing countries—whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts—can profoundly affect the country's oil policy, production, and global oil prices, both in the short and long term. Since 1979, there have been eight notable instances of regime change in medium-to-large scale oil-producing nations. While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity significantly influence the overall market impact, these events typically result in prices spiking by 76% from onset to peak and averaging a 30% increase, leaving lasting effects.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on June 20, 2025.

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