The global economy’s first-half performance was marked by resilient growth in the face of the second wave of the pandemic, alongside broad-based upside inflation surprises. Although we expect divergent policy impulses to sustain a wide US-China growth gap, acceleration elsewhere is central to our 2H21 outlook. We look for vaccinations to more fully sever the link between economic activity and the virus unleashing significant pent-up consumer demand in Europe, Japan, and EM ex. China. Fading pandemic headwinds should also relieve supply constraints which were a significant source of inflation in 1H21. However, alleviating bottlenecks will take time and the anticipated re-opening of service-sectors should lift inflation in areas where normally-sticky prices moved lower last year.

This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3794739-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Global Data Pod: Breaking the waves as vaccinations pave the way for acceleration and greater balance in 2H21 growth” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.