Global Data Pod

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this week’s January surveys, the firming in global industry late last year looks to have continued into 2025. However, US policy churn—including an unexpected trade war on its closest trading partners—has increased uncertainties that are likely to be a new headwind, particularly on business spending. US fiscal policies are limited by already elevated deficits, adding to concerns of sustainability.

This podcast was recorded on February 7, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and Türkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent across countries. Our bias is for a larger Euro area inflation slide vis a vis the US and UK, while EM is likely to remain differentiated. Tariffs add to upside risk and will provide a further test of persistent inflation and psychology.

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

This podcast was recorded on February 05, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895168-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severely challenged with the confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Such an outturn would not only weigh more heavily on the global outlook but also undermine the US expansion given the centrality of the US’s most important trading partners. Amid a flurry of central bank meetings, we largely got what was expected.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump administration’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They explore the motivations, risks for retaliation, potential economic implications, and consequences for USMCA.

This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4894757-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change our key calls. Against this backdrop, the global economy is humming along with news supporting our call for global industry to perk up in the coming months. Among the many central banks meeting next week, the Fed (hold) and ECB (-25bp) will be a reminder of the stark divergence between these two economies. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Monday’s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of sweeping policy changes, the effects of which will take months (or longer) to understand. Still, a likely wave of executive orders will begin a period of busy policy and data tracking. Global industry looks to have perked up at year-end but the surveys remain depressed. Tracking the state of global sentiment as it processes the coming flurry of US actions will be particularly important as a leading indicator.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evolved in the past month or so. Our 2025 outlook assumes that new tariffs from the Trump administration will be targeted at China.  A clear risk to our baseline view is that increases in US tariffs will be more widespread.  

Speakers:

This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4882648-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885198-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns around US policy reinforce these views but are also raising financial and macro risks that have both a directional and timing uncertainty.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Kasman

This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, has been crucial to the region’s resilience in 2024. While these tech tailwinds are likely to sustain, the regional outlook for 2025 is heavily clouded by a US-China Trade War 2.0. In contrast to the last US-China trade war, the rest of the region is more vulnerable this time around because activity is still much below the pre-pandemic path and the shock itself is likely to be more acute (potentially larger increase in tariffs with the transshipment escape-valve closed). Moreover, the policy space to respond – especially on fiscal – is more constrained this time. So the collateral damage on the region, while differentiated across countries, is likely to be larger than commonly presumed.

This podcast was recorded on January 09, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4866513-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A number of elements of our high-for-long rate narrative will be tested by data and policy guidance this quarter. We will receive greater clarity on the direction of US policy where we expect the new administration to eschew extremes on trade and immigration policy while moving forward quickly on regulatory relief. Our expectation for a lift in global industry and firming in goods prices is already being challenged by a disappointing global mfg. PMI.  On inflation we do not see a repeat of the past two year’s front-loaded price increases, but look for the persistence of sticky global core CPI gains.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 3 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.