Global Data Pod

Inflation over the past two months has moderated across many economies, a welcome relief that challenges our sticky inflation call. However, increasing confidence in growth suggests that even if rate cutting cycles are seeing a green light to commence, the easing path could still be shallower than expected. Spillovers from Fed easing do not outweigh domestic conditions in the EM.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The latest data show a global expansion that is both resilient and moderating. The June global PMIs remain consistent with strong growth at midyear, while a slide in business expectations points to concerns in the months ahead as political uncertainties heat up. In the US a solid payrolls report fuels consumer purchasing power but the moderation in the pace of growth could portend more slowing to come. With hints of inflation slowing as well, the direction of travel is toward potentially earlier rate cuts.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 5 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The overall performance of the global economy has aligned with our forecast in 1H24 as the growth base has broadened, inflation has proven sticky and central banks cautious. However, momentum shifts into midyear raise new questions about what lies ahead. We believe that the course of the global expansion – and policy rates – is centrally linked to the willingness of a business sector with still high margins, but facing sluggish profit growth and high borrowing costs, to expand.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.

This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4731978-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Vinicius Moreira and Tingting Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss how the shift in China’s commodity imports away from the US have benefitted key commodity producers such as Brazil. Since the 2018 trade war, Brazil’s share in China’s imports has been growing, especially relative to the US performance. On the top of that, China has been importing commodities beyond what the domestic fundamentals would indicate. These factors are helping to keep demand for Brazilian products elevated, creating incentives for the local production, and making the trade surplus wider than otherwise it would have been.

This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725128-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After a consequential week on inflation, this week focuses on growth tracking. Global IP is on track for a bounce this quarter, as expected, but a softening in consumer goods spending raises some concern about sustainability. So too does a disappointing set of June flash PMIs. On balance, however, we still see solid support for an expansion that is already expected to moderate into the second half.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Nora Szentivanyi

This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In a consequential week for the US, the first soft inflation print in five months gave the Fed and markets some relief. The Fed remained cautious but hopeful with an unchanged narrative: still eyeing a rate cutting cycle that begins this year and continues with nine cuts through 2026.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After a month of data tilting a bit softer, this week’s news reaffirmed the resilience in the global expansion. A strong set of PMIs were capped off by a strong US payroll report. With fading fears on growth, central banks are left questioning the pace of cuts. The ECB and BoC both eased this week but were more cautious looking forward. Next week’s Fed should deliver caution as well with an adjustment up in the 2024 dots and possibly in 2025.

This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the May jobs report.

This podcast was recorded on June 7, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4721112-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In a data-heavy short week, the latest news points to somewhat softer growth and inflation but none of which alter views of a resilient expansion and sticky elevated inflation that will keep central banks more cautious. Next week’s global PMIs will be important for tracking our call of a manufacturing lift into midyear, while US payrolls to show continued support for consumers and the ECB and BoC look set to begin a tentative cutting cycle.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.