Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation remains sticky at its core

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall in 1H24. Global core CPI picked up to a 0.3%m/m sa pace in January-February, pushing our 1Q24 forecast to 3.4%ar. A phase of global goods price disinflation looks to have ended while service price inflation remains sticky. We expect core inflation to ease modestly to a roughly 3% pace next quarter. Less clear is the case for the step down in 2H24 and beyond which is not yet validated in global labor costs, short-term expectations or in recent signals from commodity markets. 

SpeakersNora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy ResearchMichael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 26 March 2024.

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