First-quarter global activity looks to have strengthened materially and, while we are looking for a deceleration in the current quarter, the March surveys are still pointing to strong momentum. Ahead of tomorrow’s US payroll report, we are expecting a slowing in job growth but to a still-solid pace. Combined with inflation that continues to run hot in most corners of the world, and in the US where next week’s core CPI is projected to have accelerated for a fourth straight month in March, central banks are caught between overheating and a potential credit crunch.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.