Somewhat better news on both growth and inflation reduces the extreme tail risks of either a near-term break into recession or a rebound in inflation that requires further rate hikes. However, the mass of the likelihood distribution remains around our bottom-up soft-landing call and our top-down global view that sticky inflation requires high-for-long rates that in turn eventually drive a recession sometime over the next 4-6 quarters.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 December 2023. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Avast, trim those tails!

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The May flash PMIs this week add to confidence that US growth is resilient and that Europe is rebounding from last year’s stall. Consumer spending is still a weak point in Europe through last quarter, but this only reinforces our view that spending will perk up. Confidence in the disinflation path still points to ECB and BoC cuts in June, while risks for the Fed and BoE are pushing further out—underscored by a warning in this week’s Fed minutes and a strong upside surprise in UK April inflation.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: And now, a word from our PMIs

Joseph Lupton joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss recent shifts in consumer confidence, its fundamental drivers and the outlook for consumer spending. Macroeconomic fundamentals such inflation, income growth, labor markets and stock markets explain a reasonable share of movements in consumer confidence. But the latest consumer sentiment readings for DM economies broadly sit below the levels suggested by macro conditions. A decoupling of this consumer “malaise” from actual consumer behavior in the US drove an acceleration in global consumer spending last quarter. And with the latest PMI surveys indicating that the base for global growth is broadening, we expect consumer spending in a few key regional weak-spots (particularly Western Europe) to follow suit in the months ahead.
 
This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691534-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Consumer malaise and the outlook for spending

A good week for data delivers some relief on inflation and points to some moderation in growth, both of which are needed to keep central banks on the path toward easing. However, with inflation still elevated and labor markets still hot, more will be needed to put us back on the path to a soft-landing. Easing financial conditions could be too much of a good thing, short-circuiting the journey.
This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Keep hope alive

Africa Edge stands out with best primary balance position across frontiers recorded last year. And economies in Africa have improved their primary balance positions in a significant manner in recent years, a trend that we expect to continue. This has been largely on the back of IMF-led reforms, but higher oil prices also helped.
 
This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4689232-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod EM Edge: The Africa story that you have missed

Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton. As we trim the tails of extreme risks to the upside and downside around the global outlook, we are settling into a resilient downshift. Sticky elevated inflation should give central banks more grief than it appears to have so far and rates markets have repriced. And yet, risk markets have taken it all in stride—because, in the end, we are all just talking about tracking (a resilient expansion).
 
This podcast was recorded on 5/10/2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Avast, trim those tails!

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