Recession risks abound and the mood at this week’s IMF meetings in Washington D.C. was downbeat as people expect central banks to keep pressing the break until something actually breaks in the expansion. But timing matters and the near-term drop in headline inflation is pointing to resiliency more so than fragility. While financial tightening risks morphing into outright stress in areas that are hard to foresee, the biggest risk remains a central-bank induced recession that takes shape much further down the road (like 12-18 months from now).

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

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