Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton to discuss how Chair Powell has sent a strong signal that this normalization cycle will prove different than the last and we now expect the FOMC to hike seven times (175bp) by the end of March 2023. This shift comes against the backdrop of a sharp slowing in US and global growth this quarter. To realize our Fed call, the Omicron drag needs to be short-lived and the threat posed by energy and agricultural supply shocks needs to pass unrealized. Looking beyond the start of the year, risks turn towards the transmission of Fed tightening to financial markets which has varied greatly over previous policy normalizations.

This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2022.

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