In the wake of impressive resilience through 1H22, the global expansion looks increasingly brittle at midyear. While activity data from Asia show an encouraging bounce back from earlier pandemic drags, relentless inflation headwinds threaten to break the back of the consumer in the US and Europe. Confidence has dropped to forty year lows in Europe, while US and European flash PMIs took a larger than expected dip in June—with a surprising decline in the service sector PMI belying the strength of the much-anticipated re-opening dynamic. Next week’s inflation and survey readings to further underscore downside risks.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

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