With growth and inflation both surprising to the upside in recent months (in the US and more broadly globally), confidence in the path to central bank easing has been shaken. In signaling that rate cuts are still on the near-horizon, both the Fed and ECB are hoping the data return to the path of immaculate disinflation that characterized 2H23. Absent that, we would expect a material narrative shift to follow in the face of continued upside growth and inflation surprises.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.