The growth picture is mixed but on balance shows the expansion ending last year on solid footing. Robust US GDP growth along with a welcome move up in the January flash DM PMIs supports our call for trend-like growth last quarter and this quarter. Global inflation is sliding but core remains elevated around 3%ar. For the Fed next week, at-target inflation calls for an early start to rate cuts but strong growth suggests no need to rush.

This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.

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