While our modal views on the global outlook are not changing much, risks of imminent recession are fading and the likelihood of an intra-cycle lift should not be ignored. The goods sector is most primed for a bounce in this case, but the fate of the medium-term outlook will rest more on service sector normalization and the broader sensitivities to past policy tightening.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.