After a few weeks of data fanning worries of a near-term recession, this week’s activity data provided relief. The global January PMIs improved broadly across countries and sectors. In the US, a gangbuster payroll report belied a number of more anecdotal reports suggesting labor market retrenchment. Also, the US consumer looks to have opened their wallets in January for motor vehicles. Not all is rosy, as the industry data out of Asia continue to be ugly and the risks outside of China are skewed to the downside. News on capex spending is also softening. Moreover, while US and European resilience is welcomed, too much strength reinforces the risk of more aggressive rate hikes that risk recession later.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

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