The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow. Next week, the FOMC should lean in this direction removing one easing from its dot plot and raising its r* estimate
This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Slouching toward high-for-long

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

Business

Investing

Careers

Management & Marketing

Business News

Shopping

A good week for data delivers some relief on inflation and points to some moderation in growth, both of which are needed to keep central banks on the path toward easing. However, with inflation still elevated and labor markets still hot, more will be needed to put us back on the path to a soft-landing. Easing financial conditions could be too much of a good thing, short-circuiting the journey.
This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Keep hope alive

Africa Edge stands out with best primary balance position across frontiers recorded last year. And economies in Africa have improved their primary balance positions in a significant manner in recent years, a trend that we expect to continue. This has been largely on the back of IMF-led reforms, but higher oil prices also helped.
 
This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4689232-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod EM Edge: The Africa story that you have missed

Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton. As we trim the tails of extreme risks to the upside and downside around the global outlook, we are settling into a resilient downshift. Sticky elevated inflation should give central banks more grief than it appears to have so far and rates markets have repriced. And yet, risk markets have taken it all in stride—because, in the end, we are all just talking about tracking (a resilient expansion).
 
This podcast was recorded on 5/10/2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: We’re talking about tracking

With growth and inflation both surprising to the upside in recent months (in the US and more broadly globally), confidence in the path to central bank easing has been shaken. In signaling that rate cuts are still on the near-horizon, both the Fed and ECB are hoping the data return to the path of immaculate disinflation that characterized 2H23. Absent that, we would expect a material narrative shift to follow in the face of continued upside growth and inflation surprises.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: From tracking to hoping

Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
 
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April jobs report.
 
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Slouching toward high-for-long

Download our free app to listen on your phone