There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that recoupling is taking hold that lifts hiring this quarter even as consumer spending slows. US inflation data follows a similar pattern, with the underlying signal pointing to somewhat less firming than incorporated in our forecast.

Speakers: 

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2026.

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