Momentum continues to soften as consumers took a breather through the holidays. Downgrades this week point to 1Q21 being the weakest of the expansion. We see the Omicron wave as a concentrated drag that will reverse in later quarters. But elevated inflation and a faster-than-expected normalization in labor markets is challenging the view of a gradual path of monetary normalization around the world, and this should temper the expansion. 

Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton.

This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2022.

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