Since the last JPMTV in mid-December, the news has been mixed but on balance shaves the risks of a near-term global recession, and boosts slightly the odds of a soft-landing while leaving a two-thirds chance of a recession by late-23/early-24. China’s COVID-drag looks worse but also points to a sooner-rebound, while stronger US expenditure data point to a more robust 4Q22. We are not out of the woods as the manufacturing sector looks particularly fragile and the Fed remains geared to stamping out inflation risks.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.