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US-Iran truce hopes and PPI miss boost Fed cut bets. Dollar extends fall against all other major currencies. Yen the second biggest loser in line on reduced BoJ hike bets. Stocks reflect ceasefire optimism, gold gains some ground as well.
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Reports of fresh US-Iran talks scheduled as the former blocks the Strait of Hormuz. Both the dollar and major equity indices return to pre-Middle East crisis levels. Gold’s underperformance persists as investors are not adopting the US-Iran agreement hopes. Rich Fedspeak, packed earnings releases, and US data in the spotlight today.
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Two-week truce is already under threat as Israel continues its operations in Lebanon. Iran demands payment to open the Strait of Hormuz; Trump threatens new attacks. Risk-on sentiment evaporates; oil remains near $100 and gold fails to climb to $4,900. Key US data ahead, with March CPI being the highlight tomorrow.
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A two-week US-Iran truce has been agreed, prompting a risk-on market reaction. Dollar, oil and bond yields drop, while equities and gold rally. A sizeable risk premium is still present as the ceasefire remains fragile. Fed minutes, Fedspeak and the 10-year US bond auction are in focus.
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Markets on edge ahead of Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz.
Trump doubles down on Iran ultimatum, threatens to ‘take out’ country. Oil
extends gains, dollar softer, stocks mixed.
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Trump warns Iran of ‘hell’ if Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened by Tuesday. But ceasefire hopes still alive on reports of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices ease from highs, dollar softer, gold edges up. US futures steady after upbeat NFP report, PMI and inflation data eyed.
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Oil futures surge ahead of long Easter weekend but ease off highs. Hopes of reopening of Hormuz help equities to halt selloff. Dollar slightly softer ahead of March jobs report, gold slips again.
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Trump’s address offers little reassurance apart from fresh escalation. Oil futures jump back above $100 as Trump has no plan for opening Hormuz.
Dollar also reverses higher, stocks and gold tumble as risk appetite sours.
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Dollar remains strong, but investors start considering rate cuts again. Traders are more concerned about economic growth than hot inflation. Gold extends recovery as fading rate hike bets increase its appeal. S&P 500 and Nasdaq slide, stock futures point to higher open.
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Dollar extends gains as the Houthis enter the conflict. WTI crude oil
rebounds and emerges back above $100 per barrel. Yen fueled by
intervention and rate hike warnings. Wall Street tumbles, but futures today
suggest small rebound.
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