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Equity and currency markets generally quiet with US and UK on holiday.
It's a packed week though – RBA and OPEC get the show rolling. Overall,
investors seem awfully comfortable with prospect of Fed taper.

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As predictions about higher inflation turn out to be mostly correct, investors haven’t been doing such a good job in reading the health of the US labour market. The May nonfarm payrolls report will be an important test for the markets. But a busy data week means traders will have more than the US jobs report to grapple with. Australian and Canadian GDP prints, as well as Eurozone flash CPIs are some of the other highlights. The Reserve Bank of Australia will kick off the June central bank gatherings.

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Treasury yields advance on Biden’s $6 trillion budget plan; PCE inflation eyed next. But modest gains for dollar as pound spikes after BoE’s Vlieghe hints at 2022 rate hike. Stocks head for weekly gains, buoyed by US data and budget proposal, but tech lags.

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Fed’s Quarles joins Clarida in signalling taper debate may start soon, but yields rise only slightly. Prospect of less stimulus keeps dollar supported near one-week high as stocks struggle. Taper signals thwart gold’s bid above $1,900/oz, Oil weighed by possible Iran supply boost.

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RBNZ signals 2022 rate hike, kiwi surges, but ECB plays down taper talk, knocking euro. US yields edge up from lows after Fed’s Clarida suggests taper debate could begin soon. “Talking about talking about” tapering doesn’t faze gold as price hits $1,900/oz.

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Bond yields drop again, growth stocks rally after Fed soothes inflation fears. China’s crackdown on commodity speculators also eases inflation concerns. Dollar slumps to near 5-month low, euro surges above $1.2250.

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Dollar and stocks firmer, look to Fed speakers and data for momentum,
inflation clues. Euro softer after Lagarde comments, pound slips too. Metal
prices fall again after China warning, aussie struggles.

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Markets just got their first acknowledgement by the Fed that it may soon need to begin discussions on tapering. However, further clarification is unlikely to come before the next FOMC meeting in June so as we head into a quiet data week, trading might get even choppier than it has been recently as investors search for more clues on inflation. One such clue will be the latest PCE inflation numbers out of the United States. Otherwise, the only other highlight next week is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting.

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Dollar skids towards 3-month lows as inflation and taper fears ease further. Wall Street halts losing streak as lower yields lift tech stocks. Commodities extend losses but gold holds near highs amid rotation out of crypto.

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Fed minutes drop first hint of starting to ‘think about thinking about’
tapering. US dollar and yields jump, but not much, before easing slightly.
Wall Street dips but pares losses, equity markets mixed today.

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