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Long-term Treasury yields climb again, dampening the mood in equity markets. Stocks and gold slide, but dollar stumbles over poor jobless claims figures. Pound hits $1.40, unbruised by big retail sales miss; aussie soars

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There's been a striking change in the dynamics of the FX market lately, with the US dollar no longer trading exclusively as a safe haven and instead reacting to American economic data. Investors have their eyes on the Fed, even if it is too early to price in a proper QE withdrawal. The main event in the coming week is the RBNZ meeting, where the central bank could strike a more cheerful tone. Fed Chairman Powell also testifies before Congress.

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US yields pull back as Fed says it will take “some time” to achieve its goals. Stocks
mostly down but Dow Jones rises amid rotation out of tech shares. Dollar holds
onto gains after huge jump in US retail sales.

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Treasury yields jump again as stimulus draws closer, inflation bets continue to rise. Dollar soars against yen, crashes gold; stocks ease back but no sign of panic. Oil holds firm amid US disruptions, copper surges on growth optimism.

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There's something different about this booming stock market, especially
when one looks at all the madness under the hood in small-cap and penny
stocks. Several reasons have been floated to explain this phenomenon,
from cheap money policies to massive government spending to the rise of
small investors. It looks like a bubble, but the thing about bubbles is that
they can last longer than anyone thinks possible.

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Safe-haven yen sold across the board as vaccine rollouts fuel hopes of a swift recovery. Stocks continue to soar even as global yields creep higher, but dollar fights back. Pound scales fresh highs as aggressive vaccination campaign shines light on UK assets.

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Global stocks surge to fresh highs as no end to euphoria, but quieter day
expected. Dollar jolts back down, pound and aussie roar ahead on vaccine boost.
WTI oil smashes above $60 a barrel to new post-pandemic high.

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There will be no shortage of data releases in the coming week, with Japanese GDP, Australian job numbers and European and US flash PMIs being some of the highlights. But markets may still struggle to find new direction as there’s nothing on the horizon that is likely to alter the existing narrative on stimulus and vaccine expectations. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are also not anticipated to rattle markets. Though, in the absence of any exciting headlines, investors might overreact to any FOMC views that are not aligned with the dovish consensus, lifting the battered US dollar.

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Equity markets stage late comeback after Biden boosts semiconductors. Euro/dollar caught between conflicting narratives, currencies quiet overall. Most of Asia off for Lunar New Year week - thin liquidity implies risks.

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Stocks virtually flat despite promises of endless Fed liquidity. FX quiet too as traders search for the next big theme. US jobless claims and Disney earnings top the agenda today.

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