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Markets wrestle vaccine and stimulus optimism with worsening near-term gloom. Upbeat Chinese GDP highlights global growth disparity as US retail sales sag. Euro stuck in the doldrums, eyes Italian confidence votes.

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The first of the new year’s central bank meetings will get under way next week and it will be a heavy schedule on the data front as well. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada will almost certainly be debating the latest setback to the recovery from the worsening Covid-19 outbreak. China will report its fourth quarter GDP print and flash PMIs along with inflation and retail sales numbers will be doing the rounds in most markets. However, investors will once again be gripped by the happenings on Capitol Hill in Washington amid fears of more violent scenes at Joe Biden’s inauguration and a possible vote in the Senate on Trump’s impeachment.

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Stock markets drift lower as Biden’s relief plan raises execution questions. Dollar undecided, caught between mild risk aversion and dovish Powell. Euro starts pricing in the risks, sterling flies as UK vaccinations accelerate. Today: US retail sales, big bank earnings and German leadership contest.

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US President-elect Biden will unveil his stimulus proposal today. Size and details of the plan crucial for fate of dollar and equities. Markets quiet overall waiting for Biden, ignore Trump impeachment. Fed chief Powell speaks, ECB minutes coming up, Italian politics eyed.

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Dollar retreats after Fed officials play down prospect of QE tapering. Euro capitalizes on dollar’s woes, even as Merkel warns of extended lockdown. Stock markets quiet, but crude oil continues impressive bull run. US inflation data and Fed speakers today could set the tone.

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Dollar buoyed by rising US yields as Fed discusses QE tapering. Stock markets suffer a rare pullback, dragged down by big tech. Sterling gets its feet under it as BoE Governor plays down negative rates. Parade of Fed speakers today – normalization remarks crucial.

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President-elect Biden pledges new relief package worth ‘trillions’. Stocks hit new records, dollar comes back to life, gold purged. Is the market now trading the ‘growth narrative’ instead of ‘reflation’?

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Equity party continues to rage amid whispers of $3 trillion infrastructure bill. Yen and gold suffer as global bond yields climb. Dollar extends rebound ahead of nonfarm payrolls – an asymmetric event?

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It looks like a quiet week for global markets, with no major central bank meetings and only a handful of key data releases. The highlight may be the US CPI data, which will tell us how inflationary pressures are evolving, but even that is likely to pass unnoticed. Instead, the main driver for markets may be any signals around a new relief package once the Democrats take over the US government. If so, the ‘reflation trade’ could continue to dominate.

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Equities hit new record highs as Democrats take full control of Congress. But havoc on Capitol Hill keeps animal spirits in check. Dollar kept alive by spike in real yields, gold not as fortunate. Overall, Congress and Fed working together implies rosy outlook for riskier assets.

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