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Drop in ISM manufacturing PMI rounds up malaise in global factory activity. Dollar and stocks steady as Fed rate path little changed, all eyes on NFP report. Aussie falls then bounces after RBA holds rates; oil prices whipsaw on OPEC+ cut.

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Tech stocks lead Wall Street higher in strong first half as PCE inflation
eases. Growth optimism outweighs Fed rate hike bets as Asia rallies too.
But dollar bounces off lows ahead of ISM PMIs, jobs report.

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Dollar gains ground on solid GDP data, awaits more releases today. Yen
receives more intervention threats - are markets sleeping on a BoJ shift?
Eurozone inflation data coming up, gold drifts, stocks keep winning.

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Markets have been left somewhat bruised from a fresh round of hawkish gunfire from central bank chiefs so nerves are running high ahead of the June jobs report out of America. The ISM PMIs and the Fed meeting minutes are also expected to send speculation about a July rate hike into overdrive. However, Australia’s Reserve Bank might decide against raising interest rates thrice in a row. The yen, meanwhile, will be hoping that Japanese data will provide some relief from its selloff.

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Dollar gains as Powell hints at more than one additional hike. BoJ’s Ueda says there is “distance to go” before shifting policy. S&P 500 and Dow Jones slide on Powell’s comments.

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Euro rebounds as ECB officials appear in hawkish suits. Yen extends slide, despite new intervention warnings. Loonie and aussie slide on lower-than-expected CPI data. Wall Street gains on upbeat US data.

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Yen gets hit by another selling wave, retests its multi-year lows. Dollar
slightly softer ahead of US releases, euro capitalizes. Tech stocks
encounter some profit-taking, ECB forum begins.

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Armed mutiny in Russia ends peacefully, but gold trades quietly. Yen
remains close to its recent lows despite hawkish BoJ signals. Euro loses
ground after soft business surveys, stocks drift lower.

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With all the major central bank decisions behind us, the spotlight next week will turn to another round of inflation releases. The euro has been riding high lately, but whether it still has miles left in the tank will depend on what the inflation outlook spells for ECB policy. Meanwhile, the yen has been demolished and since FX intervention seems unlikely, it might take an acceleration in Japanese inflation to stop the bleeding.

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Recession fears heightened after BoE surprises with 50-bps hike, Eurozone PMIs disappoint. Hawkish Fed commentary further underscores need for more central bank tightening. Dollar advances as pound and euro slide, Wall Street heads for rare weekly loss.

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