The Fed Two Hundred Stock Index — Inaugural Edition

Federal spending is not random. It follows rules, incentives, and long-term patterns that repeat year after year. But while government contracting is one of the largest and most structured parts of the United States economy, it is rarely examined through the lens of public markets.

In this inaugural episode of Federalytics, the team at GovClose introduces the Fed Two Hundred Stock Index, a new analytical framework designed to track how sustained federal contracting activity may — or may not — show up in publicly traded companies over time.

The Fed Two Hundred tracks two hundred and seven public companies with meaningful federal exposure, grouped into four tiers by market capitalization. Each week, the index examines historical federal contracting data from fiscal year two thousand twenty-two through fiscal year two thousand twenty-six, newly reported contract actions, daily stock prices, and index-level performance compared to the Standard and Poor’s Five Hundred.

This episode establishes the baseline.

Listeners are walked through how the index is constructed, what it measures, and—just as importantly—what it does not attempt to claim. This is not investment advice. It does not assert causation. Instead, it is a transparency tool built to observe patterns, test assumptions, and document what the data shows over time.

The episode then reviews the first week of results, covering January second through January ninth, two thousand twenty-six. During that period, the Fed Two Hundred Composite Index outperformed the Standard and Poor’s Five Hundred, with notable variation across tiers. Tier Two companies led weekly performance, while Tier Four companies led quarterly performance, reinforcing why segmentation matters.

The report also highlights weekly winners and losers across each tier, illustrating how performance diverges even among companies operating in similar federal markets. Two company spotlights—L Three Harris Technologies and C A C I International—demonstrate how stock performance and federal contracting activity can coexist without simple explanations.

Rather than drawing conclusions, this episode frames the questions that matter next. Do federal contracts influence stock performance with time delays? Do certain tiers behave differently as trends persist? Does consistency matter more than growth?

If patterns exist, they will be surfaced. If they do not, that outcome is equally valuable.

Federalytics is produced by the team at GovClose, a government contracting education and training organization founded by a former federal acquisitions officer who managed more than eighty-two billion dollars in government contracts. GovClose helps professionals learn how to sell to the United States government—whether by winning contracts for their own business, advising companies as consultants, or securing high-paying account executive roles in the public sector.

To learn more, visit govclose dot com.

This episode marks the beginning of an ongoing effort to bring clarity—not hype—to one of the most important and misunderstood markets in the economy.

Learn how to sell to the U.S. government: https://www.govclose.comThe US government spends $700+ billion annually with small businesses, but less than 0.25% of small businesses ever win a contract - and it's because they're doing it wrong. In this video, I break down the exact subcontracting strategy that flips the script: instead of cold-emailing prime contractors begging for work, you bring them opportunities they can't ignore. As a former Air Force acquisitions officer who managed over $82 billion in contracts, I'll show you how to find early opportunities, identify the right primes, and position yourself as the subcontractor they need. Stop begging and start winning government contracts the right way.Want to join our exclusive community? See if the GovCon Certification Program is right for you. Schedule a Enrollment Consultation: https://www.govclose.com/enrollment-interviewConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/

GovClose Certification Overview: https://www.govclose.com/govclose-certification-programThe "Jab Jab Right Hook" Strategy for Government Contracting SuccessStop chasing contracts with proposals. Start building relationships that WIN contracts. In this coaching call, I break down how relationship-based selling works in government contracting using Gary Vaynerchuk's "Jab, Jab, Right Hook" framework.Most contractors think they need to write better proposals. Wrong. The most successful government contractors I know rarely write competitive proposals—they win through relationships. Here's how to apply the Jab-Jab-Right Hook method to build genuine connections with contracting officers and decision-makers.**Who This Is For:**→ Government contractors tired of losing competitive bids→ Small businesses building their first relationships with agencies→ Consultants helping clients navigate federal sales→ Anyone pursuing DOD, DOE, DHS, or civilian agency contracts→ Companies with existing contracts looking to expand within an agency**CHAPTERS:**00:00 - Introduction: Why Relationships Beat Proposals00:45 - Always Take the Networking Call (Real Story)01:15 - Negotiating Between Big Companies & Egos02:00 - The Lawyer Problem: CYA vs. Making Deals Happen03:15 - Community Support & Learning from Each Other04:30 - Teaming Agreement Templates (Use & Reuse)04:45 - Product vs. Problem: Focus on THEIR Need07:00 - Market Intelligence Tools: Who Needs What14:30 - Using GovWin IQ to Track Pipeline & History18:15 - Subcontracting Strategy: Stay Focused or Diversify?21:00 - Timeline Expectations: 12 Months Is Normal22:00 - On-Site Networking: Fort Bragg Example22:30 - The Jab-Jab-Right Hook Method Explained23:00 - Every 3rd or 4th Time: When to Ask for Business23:15 - Why COs Want to Help Good Companies**Key Timestamps:**• 00:45 - How one networking call turned into a job offer• 02:30 - Why lawyers' CYA mentality kills deals• 05:15 - "Be passionate about your client's problem, not your product"• 06:00 - You're setting yourself up for failure if you don't match requirements• 22:30 - "Every single sale was never writing a proposal again"• 22:45 - "I would go there with engineers and fix it, wouldn't charge them"• 23:00 - "Every fourth or fifth time I'd ask for more business"• 23:15 - "I wanted to help companies that were honestly trying to do good work"**Related Videos You Should Watch:**• How to Use GovWin IQ for Pipeline Building• DOE National Labs Contracting Strategy• When to Give Up on an Agency (And Move On)• Teaming Agreements: How to Negotiate Between Big PlayersNeed a consultant? Connect with Jonathan Haines from this video. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbhaynes/**Disclaimer:** This content is for educational purposes. While I draw on my experience as a former USAF acquisitions officer, all advice should be adapted to your specific situation and reviewed with your legal/compliance team as appropriate.**Connect with me:**🌐 Website: https://www.govclose.comConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/© 2024 GovClose. All rights reserved.

If you've ever wondered what GSA does or if you were confused because GSA is a federal agency but also referred to as a "contract vehicle", then you're in the right place.

Whether you're a business selling to the government, or an account executive working for a company, or a consultant, you need to understand GSA's role in federal procurement.

I have my own biased opinion, but in this episode I'm going to present the facts in the history of government contracting ands how GSA ties in.

Start your government contracting career: https://www.govclose.comWatch on YouTube

A Contracting Officer's Advice on Proposal Writing:https://youtu.be/bcHPij1WnFsFREE Federal Sales Training: https://www.govclose.com#rfp #rfq #compliancematrix

Greg Coleman’s career took a turn that almost no one expects. After helping build a venture-backed tech company and appearing on Shark Tank, he shifted into a world most founders overlook: government contracting. In this conversation, Greg explains how startups, consultants, and small businesses can position themselves to work with federal agencies, navigate complex programs like SBIR and OTAs, and understand what it actually takes to break into the government market.Greg spent years inside the Department of Defense innovation ecosystem, where he evaluated early-stage technologies, managed prototype programs, and worked directly with founders trying to sell to the government. Today he advises companies on how to approach the federal market, avoid common mistakes, and build real opportunities inside agencies.If you're exploring government contracting for the first time, wondering how companies get funding, or trying to understand what separates successful federal vendors from everyone else, this interview gives you a clear, realistic starting point.Chapters00:00 – Greg’s background and early Air Force career02:15 – Flying high-level government officials and global missions04:05 – Launching a startup and appearing on Shark Tank07:10 – Entering the government innovation ecosystem (DIU, NSIN)13:45 – How SBIR and STTR really work for small businesses18:20 – OTAs and how companies move from prototype to production25:10 – Examples of emerging tech companies building for the government31:20 – The hardest challenge: crossing the “valley of death”35:00 – Greg’s advisory work helping companies approach the federal market38:30 – Greg’s thoughts on the GovClose Certification ProgramWork With GregGreg advises early-stage and growth-stage companies (Pre-Seed through Series B) on entering the federal market, building repeatable sales strategies, and navigating SBIR, OTA, and prototype pathways.Connect: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregorycoleman/Become a Certified Government Contracting ProfessionalLearn federal sales, pipeline building, and modern acquisition strategies inside the GovClose Certification Program:https://govclose.comHire a GovClose-Trained ConsultantCompanies can get matched with trained federal sales consultants here:https://match.govclose.com

GovClose Certification Overview: https://www.govclose.comThere is a highly effective, results-driven certification that most people have never heard of — yet it consistently helps professionals break into six-figure federal sales careers, build multiple-six-figure consulting practices, and win meaningful government contracts for their businesses.In this video, former Department of Defense (now DOE) procurement officer Lt. Col. (Ret.) Richard C. Howard walks through the complete FY26 GovClose Certification Program syllabus, based entirely on how federal agencies actually buy. You’ll see how GovClose students:- Earn top-tier roles as public sector account executives- Build consulting practices supporting government contractors- Win contracts for their own companies through data-driven strategy- Learn a repeatable process grounded in federal spending analytics- Apply what they learn through the GovClose War Room implementation systemThis is a full breakdown of the core curriculum, the methodology behind it, the real examples of what this certification prepares you to do in the federal marketplace.CHAPTERS00:00 314 Professionals Trained and the Outcomes They’re Seeing00:15 Three Types of Results: AE Careers, Consulting Wins, Federal Contract Success00:30 Rick Howard’s Background Managing $82B in DoD Contracts01:00 What You Will Learn in This Full Syllabus Walkthrough01:15 Why GovClose Is Not a Proposal-First Program01:30 The Three Paths to Applying GovCon Expertise02:00 Path 1: Contractor Path for Existing Business Owners02:45 Case Study: David Ortiz and Federal Logistics Contracts03:00 Path 2: Consultant Path for Those Without a Business03:15 Ivan’s Path: Consulting Clients and Transition Into a Top Role03:45 Path 3: Professional Path and High-Level AE Careers04:15 What These AE Roles Look Like in Practice04:30 Jacob’s Result: Standing Out Against Experienced Applicants05:00 Phase 1: Government Contracting Fundamentals06:00 Understanding Whether the Government Buys What You Sell06:15 Phase 2: Niche Development Through Federal Spending Data07:00 Identifying Low-Competition, High-Demand Niches07:30 Student Feedback: Eliminating Blind Spots Through Strategy07:45 Phase 3: Building the Federal Sales Roadmap08:15 How Agencies Buy: Vehicles, Set-Asides, Patterns08:45 Matching Your Company Profile to the Right Vehicles09:00 Estimating Realistic Potential Using Competitor Behavior10:00 How the Roadmap Helped Jacob Win His Interview11:00 Phase 4: Pipeline Building with Early-Stage Opportunities12:00 Why Waiting for Posted Solicitations Doesn’t Work12:15 Phase 5: The Art of Winning Through Meetings and Influence12:45 Rick’s Account Executive Example: Why Meetings Drive Success13:15 Understanding the Market Research Phase14:00 Case Study: Why Sam’s Bids Were Late in the Process14:30 Phase 6: Mastering Proposals and Compliance Requirements15:00 Avoiding Disqualification Through Proper Compliance16:00 What Happens After 12 Weeks: The War Room17:00 Implementation Support: Pricing, Clients, Post-Award Guidance18:00 Access to Experts Across the GovCon Ecosystem18:30 Choosing Your Specialization After Certification19:00 Advanced Topics: Vehicles, SBIR, OTA, and Acquisition Strategy20:00 Deliverables You Leave With (Roadmap, Pipeline, Strategy, Niche)20:45 Certification Benefits: Badge, Recommendation, CRM, Community21:00 Who This Program Is Not Designed For21:45 Who This Program Is Designed For22:30 The Work Required and What True Expertise Looks Like23:00 How to Learn More or Join GovClose Recommended Videos to Watch NextThe 15 Rules of SAM.govhttps://youtu.be/gdh8dNBT46M27 Steps to Write Winning Proposals for Government Contractshttps://youtu.be/4Db9iCNlhw8The High-Paying Job Military Veterans Have Never Heard Ofhttps://youtu.be/cXGnPUaimAUConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/Hire a GovClose Trained Consultant: https://match.govclose.com

Andy Main is a former UFC fighter, the youngest person to appear on The Ultimate Fighter -at the time, an MMA champion, a serial entrepreneur, and the CEO of ROE Defense. Rick talks to Andy about why he started a defense tech company, his amazing career in mixed martial arts, and his philosophy on business and life. Andy's a member of the GovClose certification program. If you'd like to check that out, you can do so at the following link: https://www.govclose.comWatch Next:The 15 Rules of Government Contracting. https://youtu.be/gdh8dNBT46MConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/Connect With Andy on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andymain1/#ufc #mma #veteran #defensetechnology

These are the 15 rules we teach in the GovClose certification program on how to consistently win contracts with the U.S. federal government.

If you have rules or formulas that you use for government contracting that are not in this video, please share them in the comments.

Start Your GovCon Career: https://www.govclose.comGovClose Certification Overview: https://www.govclose.com/govclose-certification-programConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/

From 8(a) reviews and HUBZone audits to new verification standards for woman-owned and veteran-owned businesses, there’s a clear message coming from Washington: these programs are being watched more closely than ever.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

It’s a reminder that certifications were never meant to replace value — they were designed to highlight it.

In government contracting, the sequence matters:

1. Start with value. Build a business that solves a real problem for an agency.

2. Learn the mission. Work with the government during market research and pre-solicitation to shape requirements.

3. Position early. Once you’ve established credibility, then a certification can help move the needle — slightly.

Used the right way, certifications can still be a force multiplier.
Used too early, they can become a crutch that hides a weak value proposition.

As I mention in this week’s video, contracting officers don’t award contracts because you’re certified — they award them because you deliver results.
The businesses that focus on solving mission problems first will be the ones that benefit most from these programs in the long run.

Interested in selling to the US government? Watch our free training to understand how to build a government contracting business profitably: https://www.govclose.com/watch-sales-certification

Start Your GovCon Career: https://www.govclose.com

In this special podcast episode, I go over the step-by-step process we teach in the GovClose certification program for winning government contracts. GovClose Certification Overview: https://www.govclose.com/govclose-certification-programConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/FREE Federal Sales Training: https://www.govclose.com