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🌊 Improving Basis Bids at the US Gulf
Corn and soybean basis bids at the US Gulf have shown improvement this week.
Soybean basis bids have become notably strong due to:
Improved export demand.
Falling water levels on the Mississippi River.
CIF October soybean barges are currently bid at 112 cents over the Nov24 CBOT contract, marking the strongest level since August 2023.
Corn demand, especially from Mexico, has also improved, contributing to the basis enhancement.

🌧️ Drought Conditions Update
The latest weekly drought monitor data indicates that:
The Corn Belt experienced mostly dry conditions last week, with some rain in the northern regions.
Drought conditions improved in northern Minnesota, but overall, nearly 83% of the Corn Belt is facing some level of drought.
The High Plains are still under a hot and dry weather pattern, with worsening drought conditions from South Dakota to Oklahoma.
Drought Statistics:
Corn: 62%
Soybeans: 54%
Winter Wheat: 52%
Spring Wheat: 32%
Cattle: 52%

🌱 Oversupply of Soybeans Amid Biofuel Production
Despite increased biofuel production (up 400% since 2021), soybean supplies are piling up due to:
Big crop yields and reduced export demand for US soybeans.
An influx of imported used cooking oil used for biofuel production.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River and the unexpected closure of ADM's crush plant in Iowa are further pressuring the soybean market.

🛢️ Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production increased for the third consecutive week, reaching:
1.04 million barrels per day, a 3.8% increase from the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks reached 22.3 million barrels, the highest for this time of year.
However, implied gasoline demand saw a significant drop of 11% compared to last week, despite being slightly up from the same week last year.

📈 Flash Sales and Export Activity
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:
197,180 metric tons (8 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
101,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.
Since the start of the week, exporters have sold a total of 2.3 million metric tons (89 million bushels) of corn through flash sales.

In Summary-
The agricultural landscape is marked by improved basis bids, ongoing drought challenges, and a complex interplay of supply and demand in the soybean and corn markets. As harvest progresses and weather patterns evolve, all eyes will be on how these factors will influence market dynamics in the coming weeks! 🌾📊

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Here’s an engaging overview of the latest developments in agriculture, commodities, and the economic landscape! 🚜📉

📉 Job Cuts at John Deere
John Deere announced job cuts impacting approximately 300 workers in Iowa and Illinois. This decision is driven by:
Reduced demand for farm machinery amid lower grain prices.
Earlier this year, the company had already laid off over 2,000 workers due to similar concerns.

🌽 USDA Reports Major Flash Sale of Corn
In a significant development:
US exporters sold 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of corn to Mexico.
1.04 million metric tons (41 million bushels) are for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
579,120 metric tons (23 million bushels) for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Additionally, there were sales of 332,000 metric tons (13 million bushels) of corn and 175,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
These strong sales reflect end users recognizing value in US grains, potentially providing a price floor in the market. 📈

🌧️ Brazilian Weather Pattern Shifts
Brazil is expected to experience:
Above-normal rainfall over the next 10 days, signaling the return of a typical wet pattern.
This shift should facilitate faster soybean planting, which had been delayed due to previous dry conditions.

📉 Soybean Futures Decline Amid Tariff Concerns
Soybean futures took a hit:
The Nov24 soybean contract closed down 1.3% at approximately $9.78 per bushel, marking its lowest level since September 10.
Traders are apprehensive about potential increased tariffs, especially with a likely Trump presidency, which could shift China’s reliance from US soybeans to Brazilian exports.

📈 Bitcoin Surges with Political Shifts
Amidst the political landscape:
Bitcoin soared to around $67,869, its highest since late July.
The surge is attributed to the growing probability of Donald Trump being elected president, which is seen as favorable for the cryptocurrency market.
Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up over 60%, approaching its all-time high of $73,798.
In Summary

These developments highlight the interconnectedness of agriculture, trade policies, and financial markets. With the harvest season underway and potential shifts in global markets, all eyes will be on how these factors unfold in the coming weeks! 🌾💹

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📊 Study Warns: Tariff-Induced Trade War Could Harm US Farmers
A new economic study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association highlights the potential negative impact of a US-China trade war on US farmers. The study predicts:
US soybean exports to China could plummet by 52%, while corn exports could decline by 84%. 🌱
Brazil and Argentina are poised to benefit by capturing the lost market share as they compete with US exports.
Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are considering tariffs to combat China's alleged unfair trade practices. 

🌱 NOPA Releases Record Soybean Crush Data
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that:
The US soybean crush for September reached 177.3 million bushels, marking a record high for the month and up 12.2% from August and 7.2% from September 2023. 🎉
Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.07 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2014.

🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Crop Expected to Soar
According to Conab (Brazil's version of USDA), Brazil's soybean crop is projected to reach a record 166.1 million metric tons, reflecting a 12.7% increase from last season. Despite some delays in planting due to dry conditions, soybean acreage is expected to grow by 2.8%, the smallest increase in six years. 🌾

🚜 US Soybean and Corn Harvests Progressing Rapidly
US farmers are making significant headway in their harvests:
67% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 47% the prior week and 51% on average.
The US corn crop is 47% harvested, ahead of the 30% the previous week and in line with averages.
States like Arkansas, Iowa, and Minnesota have led the way with over 70% of their soybean crop harvested. 🌽

🌾 US Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind Schedule
Winter wheat planting is at 64% nationally, just behind the 66% average. The crop is 35% emerged, showing good progress compared to the 25% from the previous week.

📦 US Soybean and Corn Shipments Disappointing
USDA reported that:
1.6 million metric tons of soybeans were inspected for export, down 3.1% from last week and 25% from the same week last year.
Corn shipments were even lower than expected, at 430,323 metric tons, a drop of 55% from the previous week.

📦 Flash Sales Announced
US exporters secured multiple flash sales on Tuesday:
131,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat were sold to Mexico for the same delivery period.

Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 📈✨

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0:00 RFK Jr and Pipelines
2:41 Corn and Soybean Futures Decline
4:05 Fast Harvest Pace
7:34 Brazil Planting Update
8:52 Oil Falls

Here’s a lively summary of the latest happenings in the market and some notable commentary from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.! 🌱📉

🎥 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Critiques Carbon Pipelines
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been vocal against carbon pipelines, stating that they’re "far from green." In a recent YouTube video, he criticized carbon capture and the tax incentives provided to large companies, arguing that these pipelines transfer wealth from working people to wealthy investors and cost taxpayers billions. He raised concerns about safety and eminent domain issues as well. Kennedy, who has endorsed Donald Trump for President, continues to stir conversation around these topics. 

🌽 Market Update: Corn & Soybean Futures Decline
Corn and soybean futures took a dip on Monday:
The Dec24 corn contract lost nearly 8 cents per bushel, closing near $4.08, marking its lowest daily close since September 20th. 📉
The Nov24 soybean contract dropped nearly 10 cents, closing below $10 for the first time since late August.
Harvest pressures and USDA projections of burdensome supplies have contributed to this price drop. Large money managers have shifted from covering their net short positions to shorting the market again. 📉

🚜 Rapid US Corn & Soybean Harvest
As of Sunday, the USDA reported that:
30% of the US corn crop and 47% of the US soybean crop had been harvested. 🌾
With another week of dry weather expected, these numbers are likely to rise significantly next week.
Farmers are managing overage bushels due to "big" crops that they cannot store, which could further pressurize the marketplace. Additionally, the Mississippi River is experiencing restrictive water levels again amid ongoing dry weather. 🚢

🇧🇷 Brazil's Slow Soybean Planting
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind, with only 8.2% of the expected area planted, compared to 17% at the same time last year. The slow pace is primarily in Mato Grosso, where farmers are waiting for consistent rainfall. 🌧️ AgRural also reported that 42% of Brazil's first corn crop had been planted as of last Thursday, slightly up from 41% last year.

🛢️ OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast
OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for this year and 2025, projecting an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 5.3% lower than previous estimates. This adjustment is due to a decline in global fuel use. OPEC plans to restore 2.2 million barrels per day of halted crude production by December. 📉

Stay tuned for more updates as the markets evolve! 🚀✨

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🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report
The USDA released its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, and there were no major surprises! 🎉 Here are the highlights:
Corn: The national yield estimate was increased to 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa), while acreage remained unchanged. 🌽
Soybeans: The national yield estimate decreased to 53.1 bpa, with acreage also unchanged. 🫘
Wheat: The carryout estimate was reduced due to lower yields, lower beginning stocks, and increased feed usage. 📉

💵 China's Finance Minister Briefing
China’s Finance Minister held a briefing over the weekend, but it lacked specific details about new stimulus measures. Analysts had hoped for up to $283 billion in new fiscal stimulus, but without specifics, investor concerns are likely to grow, especially following slower-than-expected consumer price increases in September. 📉🤔

🛍️ "The Funds" Trim Net Short Positions
Good news! "The Funds" have drastically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of October 8:
Corn: Short positions are down to 35k contracts from a record 356k in July. 📉
Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 13k contracts, reducing their short position to 19k contracts from a peak of 183k in July. 🛒
However, funds were net sellers of 7k contracts of SRW wheat last week. 📊

🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lagging
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind last year, with 9.3% of the expected area planted compared to 17.4% at the same time last year. Hot and dry conditions have been a hurdle, but the forecast is looking favorable for rainfall in the coming weeks! ☔🌾 USDA estimates this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 169 million metric tons (mmt).

🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Limits
Russia is trying to limit wheat exports with a proposed price floor and an increase in its export duty by 41%. This move is aimed at curbing exports as domestic inflation soars. Russia recently lowered its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 130 mmt due to unfavorable growing conditions. 📉🚫

🌊 Environmental Concerns in Tampa Bay
Hazardous water from a fertilizer waste facility overflowed into Tampa Bay last week due to excessive rainfall during Hurricane Milton. The overflow involved more than 17,500 gallons of water, but Mosaic reports that the water quality impacts are expected to be minimal. 🌊⚠️

📦 Flash Sales Reported
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:
Soybeans: 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🛳️
Corn: 577,928 mt (23 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌽

Stay tuned for more updates, and let's keep the momentum going! 🚀✨

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🌍📈 Trade Concerns, USDA Report, and Global Wheat Supply Woes | US Export Sales and Drought Monitor Updates

🌍 US Chamber of Commerce: Trump and Harris Could Harm Trade
The US Chamber of Commerce voiced concerns that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be detrimental for US trade:
Trump’s planned tariffs: A 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% on all other imports would raise inflation and hurt US companies that rely on imported components.
Harris’ stance on trade: Harris has been anti-trade in the past, voting against free trade deals due to their lack of attention to climate change. She argues these agreements lead to lost US manufacturing jobs, despite opening global markets for US goods.

🌾 US Export Sales Mostly As Expected
Last week’s US export sales data came in largely as expected:
Corn sales: 1.2mmt (48 million bushels), down 27% from the prior week. Unknown destinations were the largest buyer.
Soybean sales: 1.3mmt (46 million bushels), down 12% week-over-week, with China as the largest buyer.
Wheat sales: 443,600mt (16 million bushels), down 2% from last week but up 31% from the 4-week average, with Mexico as the top buyer. 📉

🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Report Coming
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CST. Here's what traders are watching:
Corn: A potential reduction in US corn carryout due to lower-than-expected September 1st stocks. Strong export and ethanol data could lead to upward adjustments in demand.
Soybeans: Minimal changes are expected in production estimates.
Global balance sheets: Adjustments to both supply and demand are possible given current global conditions.

🌾 Global Wheat Production Declines
Global wheat production is expected to decline this season due to drought conditions in major producing countries like Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the US:
Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea are further exacerbating supply concerns, driving Chicago wheat futures to their highest levels in four months.
The USDA projects world wheat ending stocks to fall to a nine-year low of 257.2mmt this season. 🌍

💧 US Drought Monitor Update
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt:
Corn: 49% of the crop is experiencing drought conditions.
Soybeans: 43% impacted by drought.
Winter wheat: 47% affected, as well as 29% of spring wheat.
Cattle: 43% of cattle areas are facing drought.

📊 US Economic Data: A Mixed Bag
Thursday’s economic data revealed both positive and negative trends:
CPI: Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. Year-over-year inflation reached 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021.
Jobless claims: Weekly claims hit a 14-month high at 258,000.

#TradeConcerns #USDAReport #WheatProduction #USExportSales #DroughtMonitor #CPIData

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0:00 USDA Preview
2:41 Ethanol Production is Strong
5:55 Deere Stock
7:17 Brazil Rain
8:19 Flash Sale
8:57 CPI Preview

🌾 Upcoming USDA Report
Get ready! The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday morning. Traders are expecting minimal changes to this year's US corn and soybean production estimates. However, there’s talk of a potential reduction in the new crop US corn carryout estimate due to lighter-than-expected September 1st stocks. Some traders are speculating upward adjustments to the demand side of the corn balance sheet, thanks to strong export and ethanol data. Keep an eye out for possible changes to global supply and demand balances as well! 📈

🌿 Ethanol Production on the Rise
US ethanol production saw a boost last week, hitting 1.04 million barrels per day—up 2.3% week-over-week and 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.2 million barrels, down from the previous week but still showing a year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand surged, with a 13% increase from last week and 20% from the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 8.4% compared to the same period last year. 🚗💨

🚜 John Deere's Stock Steady Despite Tariff Threats
John Deere’s stock remains strong, even in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump, who plans to impose a 200% tariff on machinery sold into the US if Deere moves production to Mexico. Despite the political drama, Deere's stock hit a 52-week high! Analysts believe traders are focusing on the market realities rather than political rhetoric. It seems there’s a 70% chance that tariffs will be implemented regardless of who wins the election! 📈💪

🌧️ Brazil's Soybean Country Receives Scattered Showers
Scattered showers moved across Brazil's soybean regions overnight! The weather models are having a bit of a disagreement on rainfall amounts for the next 5-10 days; the Euro model is notably wetter than the GFS model. Both models, however, suggest widespread rainfall during the 5-10 day period, potentially benefiting soybean planting. 🌧️🇧🇷

🌽 Flash Sale of Corn Reported
USDA reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. US corn export commitments are currently the fifth best in the last ten years—looking good out there! 📦

📊 CPI Report Ahead
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show further moderation in consumer prices, with a projected increase of 0.1% in September and a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. This report could be a significant market mover, influencing the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November. 📉

Stay tuned for more updates, and let’s keep the momentum going! 🌱✨

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🌱📉 Soybean Futures Fall | Brazil Rains, China-EU Tariffs, Oil Price Drop, and Biofuel Expansion

📉 Soybean Futures Take a Hit
On Tuesday, Nov24 soybean futures fell nearly 18 cents per bushel, losing half of the gains made over the past five weeks:
Uncertainty around China’s fiscal stimulus appears to be the driving factor behind the sell-off. Traders are glued to any news about stimulus measures.
Adding to the pressure, a wide-open US harvest forecast and expected rains in Brazil next week have kept traders cautious.

🌧️ Rains Set to Return to Brazil Next Week
Both the Euro and GFS weather models are predicting the return of Brazil’s wet season next week, which could accelerate soybean planting:
Brazil’s planting has been delayed due to hot and dry conditions, but the arrival of rain should help ensure proper emergence and reduce the risk of replanting.
The growing season is still young, with November through January being key months for both the market and weather conditions in Brazil. 🌱

🌍 China Retaliates Against EU Tariffs on EVs
In response to the EU’s recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China announced a series of retaliatory measures:
Tariffs on gasoline-powered cars with large engines from the EU are under consideration.
Starting Friday, China will impose a 39% tariff on brandy imports from the EU.

🛢️ Oil Prices Drop on Ceasefire Hopes
Oil prices dropped sharply on Tuesday, with WTI crude falling 4.6% to $73.57 per barrel:
A potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel contributed to the decline.
While oil prices surged 8% last week due to Middle East tensions, analysts now believe Israel may target military and intelligence sites rather than oil facilities in future strikes.

🏭 Brazil to Build World’s Largest Soy Oil-Based Biofuel Plant
Brazilian energy company Grupo Potencial will invest $109 million to create the world’s largest soy oil-based biofuel plant:
The plant will increase annual biodiesel production capacity by 80% to 428 million gallons.
Construction will begin in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2026.
This investment comes as Brazil's government prepares to sign a bill increasing the biodiesel blend in diesel fuel. 🔋

🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 166,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year:
Despite the sale, US soybean export commitments for the current marketing year are the third worst in the last ten years.

👇 Stay Connected!
Make sure to subscribe for more updates on global trade, crop markets, and energy trends. What do you think of Brazil's biofuel expansion and the impact of China’s trade retaliation? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬

#SoybeanFutures #BrazilRains #ChinaEUTariffs #OilPriceDrop #BiofuelExpansion #USDAFlashSales #AgNews

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🌾 Brazil's Soybean Planting Lagging Behind
Brazilian soybean planting is facing challenges due to dry conditions, with only 4.5% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday. This is a significant drop from 10% during the same week last year. Mato Grosso, the country's top soybean-producing state, is experiencing its slowest planting pace in nine years due to hot and dry weather. 

🇺🇸 US Soybean Harvest on the Fast Track
The US soybean harvest is making swift progress, reaching 47% completion nationally through Sunday, compared to just 26% the prior week and 34% on average. This harvest pace marks the second fastest in the last ten years! Notable states that have crossed the 50% mark include Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Minnesota. Meanwhile, corn harvest stands at 30%, slightly ahead of average at this time of year. Current corn conditions remain steady at 64% rated good to excellent. 🌽

🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind
Winter wheat planting in the US is 51% complete, which is slightly behind the average of 52%. Analysts had projected it to be 54% complete by now. States like Colorado and South Dakota have made notable progress with more than 60% of their crops planted.

🎯 Escalating Tensions in Ukraine
Recent Russian missile strikes have damaged two vessels carrying Ukrainian grain in the Odesa region. One attack resulted in the death of one individual and injuries to five others. Since the onset of the conflict in 2022, Russia has damaged a total of 20 civilian vessels, raising serious concerns over trade in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Russia's Agriculture Minister has called for rain as the winter wheat crop faces significant drought challenges.

📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge
US soybean shipments saw a remarkable boost last week, with 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels) inspected for export, marking a 110% increase from the previous week and slightly up from last year. However, corn and wheat shipments were near the lower end of expectations, with corn at 933,274 metric tons (37 million bushels) and wheat at 363,460 metric tons (13 million bushels).

🚢 Flash Sales Reported
US exporters reported multiple flash sales on Monday, including:
155,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
172,500 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

🌦️ Looking Ahead
As we move through October, the weather will continue to be a crucial factor for both US and Brazilian crops. Keep an eye on forecasts and market reactions as harvest progresses!

Stay tuned for more updates as the situation unfolds! 🌾📊

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🌽📉 Funds Reduce Net Short Positions | Middle East Conflict, Brazilian Planting Delays, and US Job Growth

📊 Funds Drastically Reduce Net Short Positions
The CFTC released its Commitment of Traders data on Friday, showing a significant reduction in net short positions by large money managers:
Corn: Funds are now short 72k contracts, down from a record short of 356k in July.
Soybeans: Net buyers of 44k contracts, reducing their net short to 32k contracts, the smallest since the end of May.
SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k contracts, bringing the net short to 25k contracts, the smallest since October 2022.

🌍 Conflict in the Middle East Escalates
Tensions continue to rise as Israeli defense reported five projectiles launched from Palestinian territory on Monday. Here’s the latest:
Sirens sounded across central Israel, and two people were injured, according to Bloomberg.
Over the weekend, Israel sent troops back to parts of northern Gaza, indicating ongoing security concerns.
The conflict has pushed crude oil futures to fresh multi-week highs, affecting global markets. 🛢️

🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lags
Brazilian soybean planting is falling behind last year’s pace due to hot and dry conditions:
Only 4.1% of the total expected area has been planted, compared to 7.8% at this time last year.
Weather models are predicting rainfall this week, which could help planting progress. 🌧️

🌦️ US Farmers to Stay Busy Amid Dry Weather
US farmers are in for a dry week, perfect for harvest activities:
After a dry weekend, Corn Belt farmers will see another week of mostly dry weather, with above-normal temperatures in the Plains and western Corn Belt.
GFS models suggest no significant rainfall in key corn and soybean areas through October 23rd.

🌾 Russian Wheat Prices Soar
Russian wheat prices have climbed to their highest levels since June due to severe drought:
Prices have risen by 4.3% in the last two weeks.
Lower production is pushing Russian exporters to limit shipments.
Egypt, a major buyer, recently launched its largest wheat tender of 3.8mmt in August. 

🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sales
The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:
116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
198,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

📈 US Job Growth Exceeds Expectations
US job growth in September surpassed forecasts:
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000, beating the expected 150,000.
Unemployment declined to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August.

👇 Stay Informed!
Make sure to subscribe for the latest on ag markets, weather forecasts, and global economic shifts. 

#CornFutures #SoybeanMarket #MiddleEastConflict #BrazilPlanting #JobGrowth #USDAFlashSales #AgNews